SNP on track to win 2026 election, poll shows

The SNP are on track to win the 2026 Holyrood election as Labour continues to suffer a significant setback, according to a new poll.

The governing party out-polled its closest rival by 10 percentage points, with 35 per cent of voters intending to give the party their constituency vote and 31 per cent their list vote.

That compares to 22 per cent of people who would vote Labour on the constituency ballot and 21 per cent on the regional one.

There is a single percentage point in it for third place, with the Conservatives polling at 14 per cent and Reform at 13 per cent in both votes.

The Lib Dems are on 10 and 8 per cent for constituency and list respectively, the Greens on 9 and 6 per cent, while Alba trail on 2 and 1 per cent.

The poll was conducted between 7-13 January by Survation for the Holyrood Sources podcast.

Meanwhile, a separate poll by More In Common has put the Conservatives, Labour and Reform within one percentage point of one another in UK-wide polling.

The Tories have a slight lead on 25 per cent – just above the 24 per cent they received in last summer’s general election.

But both Labour and Reform are tied on 24 per cent.

These represent a significant shift from last summer, where Labour secured 34 per cent of the vote and Reform got 14 per cent.

The same poll also found 70 per cent of people felt “things are getting worse” in the UK, and 67 per cent thought the Labour government “feels like more of the same”.

The Holyrood Sources poll also looked at voting intention for Westminster in Scotland only, putting the SNP on 33 per cent, Labour on 24 per cent, Reform on 15 per cent and the Conservatives on 13 per cent.

The SNP’s depute leader at Westminster Pete Wishart said: “This poll is an encouraging confirmation that people in Scotland are uniting behind the leadership of John Swinney and showing support for an SNP budget that protects our public services and invests in our economy and in our future.

“For the Labour Party in Scotland it shows that their new slogan is spot on – they do indeed have a ‘new direction’ – it’s called plummeting in the polls under Anas Sarwar.”