Divide & Conquer: Splitting the unionist vote as Starmer builds bridges

Last month, John Swinney held his first press conference at Bute House since becoming first minister. “Storm clouds are gathering”, he warned as he forecast the growing threat of “the far-right” in Scotland. He called on the country’s politicians to unite. 

“I want us to be ready for whatever this age of uncertainty throws at us, for us to be united in the face of the undoubted challenges that lie ahead,” Swinney said. 

Urging his political opponents to join him and “draw a line in the sand” against “a politics of fear”, it’s clear the first minister believes parties that fit his definition of “far-right” shouldn’t have a voice at Holyrood. Asked if he considers Reform UK, which is polling around 13 to 14 per cent ahead of the Scottish Parliament election next year, to be far-right, he confirmed he did, adding the values of Scotland are “under very, very vigorous threat from the politics of [Nigel] Farage”. 

Swinney is proposing a cross-party summit at the end of April to respond to the challenge of the far-right. Paid for by the Scottish taxpayer, leaders of all political parties currently represented at Holyrood have been invited to attend alongside representatives from civic society. The meeting will not include representatives from Reform UK. During a media briefing following First Minister’s Questions, Swinney’s spokesperson said: “I don’t expect Reform will be asking to come… We’re not going to invite them.” They added that standing up against far-right parties is “what people want from a first minister”. 

During a visit to a Glasgow chip shop last week, Reform’s deputy leader Richard Tice told members of the media the summit “shows how frightened Swinney is” of his party. 

He said: “If they throw around labels and smears, it’s pathetic and I think people can see through it. It’s nonsense, juvenile nonsense. We’re all a bit rude in politics, but ultimately after the voters have spoken we’ve got to make people better off and that’s our sole objective.”

Swinney has drawn his line in the sand and has thrown the gauntlet down to the rest of Holyrood’s parties. 

It’s a move that has been applauded by bodies like the STUC. Its secretary general, Roz Foyer, described the announcement as “commendable” and called on politicians to unite to “defeat fascism”. 

But the same enthusiasm does not seem to be shared across some of the other party benches. Reacting to Swinney’s statement, the Scottish Conservatives described the first minister’s attempt to “preach about unity” as “galling”. 

The Tories pointed to issues such as the gender reforms which have polarised the parliament and wider Scottish society in recent years. Despite this, many major policy areas, like net zero, improving health and social care, environmentalism, and a strong public sector, have had a solid consensus for many years at Holyrood, despite differing opinions on how to achieve them. While there is a good level of consensus, that’s not necessarily the case amongst all of Scotland. It’s that consensus Reform is looking to “disrupt” after the Scottish Parliament elections next year, Dr Neil McGarvey, a senior teaching fellow in politics at the University of Strathclyde, told Holyrood last year. 

And Swinney’s proposal leaves unionist parties – namely the Tories and Labour, who Reform are expected to make gains from – in a difficult spot. Speaking on BBC Radio Scotland the day after the press conference, polling expert John Curtice acknowledged that “some of this may simply be genuine” and the first minister believes that Reform UK “is inconsistent with Scotland’s values” and “all the other parties in Holyrood should treat Reform in much the same way as the parties in Germany currently treat [the far-right] AfD” and not work with them.  

However, his analysis pointed to Swinney setting traps to split the unionist vote and propel the SNP to a fifth successive election win. Curtice said: “Reform do not pose a particular threat to the SNP’s chances in this election.  

“If you look at where Reform’s vote is coming from, it’s coming primarily from those people who voted for unionist parties back in July and people who voted No back in 2014 – which takes us to the third and more perhaps Machiavellian point, which is what I think Mr Swinney is aiming to do by sowing further division within the unionists ranks.  

“In other words, he is looking in particular to Labour and the Conservatives to rule out liaising with Reform, which if Reform do manage to get significant representation at Holyrood, would make it more difficult… for a unionist politician, most likely Anas Sarwar, to be able to sustain a minority administration.” 

Labour has chosen to err on the side of caution when it comes to Reform, as Swinney extends his olive branch. Last month, Sarwar ruled out any formal agreement or coalition with Farage’s party during the next Scottish Parliament. However, he stopped short of denying he would work with Reform on individual issues, which could see him lead a minority government. 

Last week, Tice said he is confident his party will “get a good number of seats” and offered to “work with anybody who wants to make people better off”.

This could come into focus in the months ahead as polling from Ipsos last week suggested Sarwar and Keir Starmer are less popular than Swinney and Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes, while seat predictions for Holyrood since the general election have swung away from Labour narrowly defeating the SNP and towards a 12-to-17-seat lead for Swinney’s party.

For the Tories, which is the only party not to accept Swinney’s invite, the memories of losing to Reform’s predecessor, the Brexit Party, at the 2019 European Parliament elections cast some uncanny shadows. Farage’s party came second on the night in Scotland, winning 14.8 per cent of the vote – almost identical to what the polls suggest it could achieve next year – while the Tory vote collapsed to 11.6 per cent – just a few points less than polling since October.  

There may be time for the Tories to “learn the lessons” of its recent general election defeat at a UK level, but there isn’t in Scotland. And it isn’t clear from an outsider’s perspective how the party plans to wrestle support away from Reform, aside from messaging that it “needs to fully reconnect with those traditional conservative values” and “shared values of aspiration, ambition, [and] opportunity”. 

While these words may offer comfort to loyal party members, Ipsos polling suggests 45 per cent of Conservative voters in 2021 look favourably on Farage, while only 53 per cent view Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch favourably. A party source told Holyrood after the general election they were shocked that Reform came from nowhere in Scotland, with little profile, with no visits by Farage, and with no real campaign, to rival them. Next year there will be a campaign, the party has a profile as it closes in on what it claims are 10,000 Scottish members, and Farage is set to make the trip north of the border.  

It may be wise for the Scottish Conservative Party to distance itself from these talks as it looks to regain the support of the electorate that seems to have migrated to Reform and avoid what a party spokesperson suggested could be “yet another SNP talking shop that achieves nothing”. 

Just days after the announcement of the summit, following the public argument between Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance in the Oval Office, which ended with the Ukrainian president cutting his visit to Washington DC short, the SNP’s leader at Westminster, Stephen Flynn, posted to X and called on the prime minister, who had met with Trump the day prior and given him an invite from King Charles offering a historic second state visit, to revoke it. The invite was viewed as a smart move that seemed to work, as Trump later said a trade deal between the US and the UK could happen “very quickly” and he could see the UK avoiding the kind of tariffs that he has put on imports from other countries, notably Canada and Mexico.  

Flynn was accused by Findlay of “sowing division, to the delight of the Kremlin”, while Sarwar said the situation required “serious grown-up leadership, not Twitter diplomacy”. 

Flynn’s perceived intention to cause division is not something Swinney shares. In a statement to the Scottish Parliament last week, he said: “I know there are people in this chamber and this country that will disagree, who will say that we should not contemplate this stance or will say that President Trump should not be invited under any circumstances. I understand and respect those points of view, but I cannot share them.” Nevertheless, the first minister said it was “unthinkable” that Trump would receive a state visit if the US continued to suspend financial support to Ukraine. 
Flynn later described Starmer as “weak” for not posting a message of support for the Ukrainian president on social media. This reportedly angered senior SNP figures, and a party insider dismissed his attack as “one-paced” and said he should not “divide” over a sensitive defence issue. 

Speaking on Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg, Starmer said “people were ramping up the rhetoric, taking to Twitter”, but added he was only “interested in the bridge building that I can do”. 

He said this having welcomed the Ukrainian president to Downing Street less than 24 hours before the interview, assuring Zelensky of “full backing across the United Kingdom” and signing a £2.26bn loan for Ukrainian military supplies that will be repaid using profits from frozen Russian assets.  

Starmer went on to make a passionate but measured speech about the UK’s role in securing peace and security for Ukraine at Westminster the next day. In his speech, he described a “coalition of the willing” that would strengthen ties with Europe as the international partners work to improve issues like security, defence, and economic growth. Starmer said they will “never choose between either side of the Atlantic”. 

Arguably, last week stands as Starmer’s best week since becoming prime minister, showing his ability to ease tensions between Ukraine and the US as the superpower paused its military aid to Zelensky’s forces.  

Following Scottish Labour’s regression in the polls since the general election, a party source told Holyrood during its conference last month that the prime minister can’t win Scottish Labour the election next year, but he can lose it for them. Starmer has shown his ability to unite on a world stage – time will tell if can do the same on the domestic front.