TNS poll finds no evidence the Tories are catching up with Labour

There is no evidence the Tories have made any progress in overtaking Labour and becoming the second party in the Scottish Parliament elections, according to a new poll by TNS.

But while support for Labour has stayed ahead of the Conservatives, Kezia Dugdale’s party still trails 39 per cent behind the SNP.

The TNS poll put support for the SNP on the constituency vote for the Scottish Parliament elections at 60 per cent, with Labour on 21 per cent, the Conservatives on 13 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on four per cent.

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In the list vote, the poll put the SNP on 55 per cent, Labour on 21 per cent, the Conservatives on 13 per cent, the Greens on six per cent and the Lib Dems on four per cent.

The poll found the SNP has a similar lead in both ballots among men and women across all social classes and in all age groups. The exception lies among those aged 65 and over where the SNP lead over Labour is only two per cent.

Meanwhile, the number of people saying they will definitely vote rose to 67 per cent, up from 58 per cent in December and 65 per cent last month.

Tom Costley, head of TNS Scotland, said: “There is no evidence from this February data that the Conservatives in Scotland have made any progress in narrowing the gap with Labour, to claim to be the second party – indeed, if anything, they have fallen back a little.

“With nine weeks to go, time is running out for opposition parties to make real inroads into SNP polling dominance.”

The poll suggested that views on the SNP’s education record have become more polarised, finding a decline in the number of people saying ‘don’t know’ or ‘neither’ when asked if the record was good or bad.

TNS found 34 per cent of respondents described the record as ‘good’ and 23 per cent said it was ‘poor’ – an increase of four per cent for both categories.

On the NHS, 35 per cent said the SNP’s record was good, 31 per cent said neither, 30 per cent said it was poor and three per cent said they did not know.

But Nicola Sturgeon’s party was rated worse on the economy and justice. On the SNP economic record, 22 per cent rated it good, 49 per cent said neither, 24 per cent said poor, and five per cent did not know.

Meanwhile, 23 per cent said the party’s justice record was good, 42 per cent said neither, 28 per cent said poor and seven per cent said they did not know.

Costley said: “Six months after we last asked these questions - during which time the opposition have been challenging the SNP Government on their record - there has been next to no change in public opinion of their management of the economy, health service and crime and justice.

“With focus on the next few months likely to be on Europe, opposition parties in Scotland are likely to find it ever harder to make their arguments about the government’s performance heard.”