SNP to hold balance of power, according to new analysis

If the SNP wins more than 53 seats at the general election, the probability of Labour emerging as the largest party sinks to less than ten per cent, according to a new analysis by one of the UK’s leading political academics.

In a briefing carried out for Toscafund, Professor Richard Rose runs through possible election outcomes, warning that if Labour takes the most seats then, “The Sword of Damocles hangs over the new Parliament in the form of a Scottish dirk.”

But while big SNP gains would damage Labour’s chances of taking the most seats, the anti-Tory bloc in Parliament would remain the same.

Rose predicts no party will get an outright majority in the election, with the Conservatives winning around 20 more seats than Labour, leaving the SNP holding the balance of power.

The analysis states that Ed Miliband announcing he did not wish to be Prime Minister if it required a deal with the SNP, along with Nick Clegg stating he would negotiate first with the party that won the most seats, gives new hope to Cameron holding onto power.

It says: “These developments gave fresh life to the possibility of David Cameron being prime minister for weeks, months or even years.”

However, if Labour does make gains from the Tories in England and takes the most seats, it would be in a position to present a Queen’s Speech. In that scenario the SNP could then move amendments to put down markers for holding a Labour government hostage to a later vote of no confidence.

Rose writes: “When a vote is held to confirm a Labour minority government, the SNP can either vote against, forcing an immediate second election or, more likely, announce that it will give Labour a chance by supporting it forming a government in June. It will then scrutinize in autumn the concrete measures Labour offers as delivering on its promises to the SNP. In particular, it will expect more public expenditure than Labour has been committed and more powers to Scotland.”

“A Labour government will not find it easy to give the SNP all it wants. At that time the SNP can decide whether to accept what is or offer on clear the ground for opposing Labour at the May, 2016 Scottish government election by voting Labour out of office. In short, the Sword of Damocles hangs over the new Parliament in the form of a Scottish dirk.”

In a previous analysis Rose warned Labour is facing "categorical" threat in Scotland.