SNP on track to win majority at Holyrood, poll finds

The SNP look on course to win a majority of seats in May’s Scottish Parliament election, a new poll has found. 

Support for independence has fallen slightly since November, but 52 per cent have said they would vote Yes in a referendum – the 22nd poll in a row to show that trend. 

Ipsos MORI’s Scottish Political Monitor, run in partnership with STV News, found backing for the SNP remains at high levels, with 52 per cent likely to vote for the party in the constituency vote. 

However, more than a third of Scots (36 per cent) have said the Holyrood inquiry into the Scottish Government’s handling of harassment complaints against Alex Salmond has made them less favourable towards the SNP. 

Despite this, 58 per cent said the matter had made no difference to their view of the party. 

Scottish independence was seen as the most important factor in helping people decide which party to vote for at 44 per cent, followed by education at 32 per cent, the NHS at 25 per cent and coronavirus at 20 per cent. 

The poll’s fieldwork was conducted during 15 to 21 February.

Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos MORI Scotland, said: “This latest poll from Ipsos MORI and STV News shows a fall in support for independence, and a corresponding increase in support for staying in the Union – though Yes still has a four-point lead over No. 

“That’s important for Scotland’s political parties, since independence is the top issue voters say will help them make up their minds about which party to vote for in May’s Holyrood elections. 

“At this point the SNP look on course to win a majority of seats, but the next few weeks are set to be challenging for the party, with the Salmond inquiry ongoing – and our poll shows that this issue has started to cut through with Scottish voters.”

Scottish Parliament voting intention figures for the constituency vote:

•    SNP: 52 per cent (-3 compared with 20-26 November)
•    Scottish Conservatives: 23 per cent (+1)
•    Scottish Labour: 15 per cent (+1)
•    Scottish Liberal Democrats: 5 per cent (-1)
•    Scottish Green Party: 3 per cent (+2)
•    Other: 2 per cent (unchanged)

Scottish Parliament voting intention figures for the regional vote:

•    SNP: 47 per cent (unchanged)
•    Scottish Conservatives: 22 per cent (unchanged)
•    Scottish Labour: 14 per cent (-2)
•    Scottish Green Party: 8 per cent (+1)
•    Scottish Liberal Democrats: 6 per cent (unchanged)
•    Other: 3 per cent (+1)