Poll: SNP to remain largest party at Holyrood amid rise of Reform

Reform UK are on course to win 14 seats at next year’s Holyrood election, according to analysis of new polling.

The poll carried out by Survation for Quantum Communications puts the SNP on 34 per cent of the constituency share and 29 per cent on the regional vote. Scottish Labour is up one point to 23 per cent in the constituency vote and down one point on the list to 20 per cent.

But Reform has risen sharply to 17 per cent in the constituency vote share, and 16 per cent on the list, which are the highest figures it has ever recorded in a Scottish poll.

According to calculations by the Diffley Partnership this would result in 55 seats for the SNP, 19 for Labour, 17 for the Conservatives, 14 for Reform, 13 for the Lib Dems, 10 for the Greens and one for Alba.

Professor Nicola McEwen, the director of the Centre for Public Policy at the University of Glasgow, said: “The poll suggests Reform UK could be a real contender for constituency seats in those regions where it has most support, especially Central Scotland, Mid Scotland and Fife, and the West of Scotland.

“Although small numbers in the sample point to the need for caution, 16 to 24-year-olds represent Reform’s strongest voter group by age.

“This is not unique to Scotland. Across the UK and Europe, far-right parties today appear able to capture support from young people to levels normally associated with the far left.”

Whilst the poll will be a boost for Reform, it comes at a turbulent time for the party. Following an internal row, the party recently suspensed Rupert Lowe, MP for Great Yarmouth, reducing to four its number of MPs at Westminster. 

Earlier this month, the party’s deputy leader, Richard Tice, was in Glasgow to unveil two councillors who defected from the Conservatives. They follow Thomas Kerr, the former leader of the Conservative group on Glasgow City Council, who quit to join Nigel Farage’s party earlier this year.

Commenting on the latest polling, SNP MSP Stuart McMillan said: “It is encouraging that this poll shows the SNP by far the largest party but there is more to do.  That is why we are redoubling our focus on the things that matter most to people in Scotland like the NHS, taking action to reduce waiting times and making it easier for people to see their GPs.
 
“Labour is now locked in a battle with Nigel Farage for second place as they look set to record their worst result in the history of devolution.”

A Tory spokesman said the polling showed that a vote for the Reform would help the SNP win a pro-independence majority.

He said: “Under Russell Findlay’s leadership we will continue to rebuild trust with disillusioned voters by holding the SNP government to account and focusing on common sense conservative values.”