No deal Brexit costs laid out by UK Government

UK Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab has published a series of guidance documents in case Britain leaves the European Union without a deal.

The 25 technical notices include details of how new costs may be incurred by businesses and individuals when trading or spending money abroad, as well as a potential interruption of medicines supply.

Pharmaceutical companies are instructed to stockpile an extra six weeks of medicines.

The cost of credit card transactions between the UK and EU will increase, while businesses should start preparing for new customs checks and charges.

Announcing the guidance, Raab said reaching a deal with the EU remained “by far the most likely outcome", but he played down the consequences of a no-deal Brexit.

“Let me assure you that, contrary to one of the wilder claims, you will still be able to enjoy a BLT after Brexit, and there are no plans to deploy the Army to maintain food supplies,” he said.

But later it emerged Chancellor Philip Hammond had written to the Treasury Select Committee to warn a no-deal Brexit would have “large fiscal consequences” for the public purse.

“The January analysis estimated that borrowing would be around £80bn a year higher under a no deal/WTO scenario by 2033-34, in the absence of mitigating adjustments to spending and/or taxation, relative to a status quo baseline,” he said.

“This is because any direct financial savings are outweighed by the indirect fiscal consequences of a smaller economy.”

Scotland’s constitutional relations secretary Michael Russell said the technical notices proved the UK Government must rule out such an outcome.

“These technical notices reveal the ‘no deal’ Brexit nightmare facing Scotland and lay bare the risks facing Scottish businesses, the economy and public services,” he said.

“From the bureaucratic burden that will be imposed on EU imports and exports to the need to strike a wide range of ‘no deal’ deals before the end of March, these notices only add to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit.

“People want to know if their medication will still be available and farmers and fishermen want to know if they will still be able to sell their products.”

Russell added the guidance showed the UK Government still assumes it will be able to negotiate bilateral deals like Horizon 2020 research funding, Erasmus student exchange and nuclear research programmes.

Liz Cameron, Director and Chief Executive of Scottish Chambers of Commerce, said businesses would welcome help with planning for a hard Brexit but warned they would need more.

"It is disappointing that businesses are still expected to wait for several weeks for further guidance and clarification,” she said.

“With the UK's imminent exit from the EU, we cannot afford any more delays which impacts on the ability of business to plan, prepare and trade.”

Doctors expressed alarm at the plans. BMA council chair, Dr Chaand Nagpaul, said: it is clear to the BMA that Brexit will have a catastrophic impact for patients, the health workforce, services and the nation’s health.

“Many of the no-deal outcomes outlined in this paper would result in the UK becoming both less influential within the health sector and a less significant market.

“The government is addressing the immediate risks of a no-deal scenario by encouraging providers to stockpile six weeks’ worth of medicines, but we need greater clarity on underlying long-term concerns.

“Having two separate regulatory systems for medicines, for example, could lead to delayed access to new medicines and medical devices in the long term for patients in the UK.

“To avoid chaos at the border, the government is now instructing suppliers to make arrangements to fly radioisotopes and medicines with a short shelf life into the UK - no one voted for this situation.”