Majority of Scots would back independence if Brexit goes ahead, new poll shows

Two people holding a saltire and a Union Jack - Image credit: PA Images

A majority of Scots would vote for independence if the UK leaves the European Union, a new poll has shown.

According to the survey for pro-EU campaign group Best for Britain, 47 per cent of Scots would vote yes to independence if the UK leaves the EU next year, while just 43 per cent would vote to stay part of the UK.

The remaining 10 per cent were unsure how they would vote.

However, if the UK stays in the EU, support for independence falls to 43 per cent.

If a second independence referendum were held tomorrow, the poll of 1,022 Scots carried out by Deltapoll puts support for the Union at 47 per cent and support for independence at 45 per cent.

Almost half of those polled – 48 per cent – thought that if the will of the people had changed since the 2016 referendum, it would be wrong to leave the EU.

Meanwhile, in a separate Northern Irish poll, 52 per cent of voters said they would would vote for a united Ireland if the UK leaves the European Union.  

Best for Britain chief executive Eloise Todd said: “When people voted in 2016, they didn’t vote to break up the Union and risk both Scotland and Northern Ireland voting for a different future outside the United Kingdom.

“This is compelling evidence as to why we need to stop and think again.

“The public deserve a say on the final deal, with the knowledge that if Brexit happens we could shatter the Union altogether."

Stephen Gethins MP, the SNP's Europe Spokesperson in Westminster, said: "With almost 90 per cent of polls since the referendum showing support for an independent Scotland above 2014 levels, independence is polling at historic highs.

"And with more people believing independence will benefit the country economically, the numbers convinced by the arguments for independence are on the rise.

"Crucially, support for Scotland's ability to take its own decisions in an independent country will only grow further as the deeply damaging consequences of Brexit become clearer, as Scotland’s economy continues to outperform the UK, and as people grow increasingly concerned about what the future holds under Westminster rule."

Labour MEP for Scotland, Catherine Stihler said the poll was “devastating” and revealed a “clear and present danger to the future of the United Kingdom”.

She added: “The Tories’ reckless gamble with the EU referendum and Theresa May’s disastrous handling of the negotiations are stretching the historic bonds that unite us.

“Leaving the EU will be calamitous for Scotland’s economy, and there is no such thing as a good Brexit. Leaving the UK would be even more catastrophic, leading to deep austerity and public service cuts that would hurt the poorest the hardest. 

“The majority of Scots believe in solidarity across the UK and across Europe, which is why the Tories must stop putting the Union at risk and give voters a say on the final Brexit deal.”