Low income Scottish voters could be key to winning a majority at the next General Election

Low income Scottish voters could be key to winning a majority at the next General Election, according to the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF).

A new report states that the Conservative and Labour parties need the votes of people on low incomes north of the border to help secure a majority in Westminster, while the SNP’s fortunes hinge on whether they can attract struggling households to turn out and vote.

However, JRF warned that the three main parties need to broaden their appeal in Scotland beyond issues around Scottish independence and Brexit in order to secure the breakthrough needed to win the next General Election.

Claire Ainsley, executive director of JRF said: “With British politics on a knife-edge and the main parties unable to secure a majority, how low-income households vote at the next General Election could pave the road to Number 10.

“Yet political debate is fixated on Brexit at a time when millions of families are locked in poverty and struggling to make end meets.

“It’s clear that party leaders need to address voters’ day to day struggles – such as in-work poverty and the cost of housing – and ensures everyone has the opportunity to build a better life for themselves and their families.

“Low income voters in Scotland are an important battleground and will have a bearing on who leads the country in Westminster.

“The party that unlocks more opportunities for people on low incomes could be the one that is more likely to secure a parliamentary majority at the next election.”

The research, by Professor Matthew Goodwin at the University of Kent and Professor Oliver Heath at the Royal Holloway University for JRF, draws on data from the British Election Study (BES) from the 2017 General Election.

It finds that the independence referendum in 2014 and EU referendum in 2016 have presented openings for the main parties to appeal to voters beyond their traditional base of supporters.

And with the Parliamentary arithmetic finely balanced in Westminster, the implications of what happens in Scotland are likely to be profound for the outcome of the next General Election, which looks set to be a tight race.

Goodwin said: “What happens in Scotland will likely determine whether Labour or the Conservatives hold the keys to Number 10 Downing Street after the next election.

“Our analysis shows why all of the parties have clear incentives to reboot and make a far more compelling offer to voters on low incomes and those in poverty.”