Labour 'more surprised' by Liberal Democrats general election collapse than SNP gains

The collapse of the Liberal Democrat vote across the UK was more costly for Labour than the rise of the SNP, the party’s analysis into its general election defeat has suggested.

An internal review led by Dame Margaret Beckett, published today, found Labour was aware of a ‘likely disaster’ in Scotland, but had not anticipated the scale of the Lib Dem collapse.

“We were badly beaten. The collapse in Scotland made it impossible for us to be the biggest party and the Liberal Democrat collapse enabled the Tories to gain an overall majority and keep us out of power,” the ‘Learning Lessons’ report concluded.

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The collapse affected voting patterns in key marginals, it concludes.

“While we were clear that we wouldn’t do any deal with the SNP, it was highly likely that they would make it impossible for the Tories to stay in power. However, we failed to foresee the scale of the Liberal Democrat collapse.”

The rise of UKIP as a factor is also debunked in the report, finding no seat which Labour would have won with the absence of UKIP.

As predicted, the report lays out four main reasons for the defeat: failing to shake the image of being responsible for the financial crash, failing to convince on benefits and immigration policies, Ed Miliband’s perceived weakness and a ‘fear’ of the SNP among English voters.

The evidence of the last point is “unclear”, concedes the report.

“Some analysis suggests there was no clear late switching. However, it was heard consistently on the doorstep that this scaremongering raised concerns. It may have reinforced the views of those who had already decided not to vote Labour, and, if so, may have had a decisive impact in a small number of constituencies.”

However if Labour fails to recover in Scotland, it is estimated Labour will require a 12.5 per cent swing in England and Wales in 2020.

In her introduction, Beckett said: “Many believe that ultimately elections are votes for continuity or change. And perhaps, while the public had little enthusiasm for the coalition, we didn’t do enough to convince them to change back to Labour. While in Scotland, we somehow came to represent continuity rather than change.”