Labour face big losses in Scotland - Ashcroft poll

Labour and the Liberal Democrats are set to lose safe seats to the SNP in the General Election, according to constituency polling by Lord Ashcroft in Scotland.

Sixteen key seats were polled by Conservative peer Lord Ashcroft, most of them Labour constituencies which had a high percentage of Yes voters in the referendum on independence, and two key Liberal Democrat seats. The polls reveal a swing to the SNP of over 20 per cent.

Of the 16, only Labour's William Bain in Glasgow North East is ahead, while the party is behind in all other Glasgow seats including those held by Shadow Scottish secretary Margaret Curran in Glasgow East and former deputy Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar in Glasgow central.  Labour are also facing the loss of Motherwell and Wishaw, Airdrie and Shotts, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East, Dundee West and West Dunbartonshire.

Tom Clarke, who holds a 20,714 majority in Coatbridge, Chryston and Belshill is behind the SNP, as well as Shadow Foreign secretary and chief Labour strategist Douglas Alexander in Paisley and Renfrewshire.

Liberal Democrat Chief Secretary to the treasury Danny Alexander is also set to lose his Inverness seat according to the polling, while Gordon, where Alex Salmond is due to stand, is also set to fall to the SNP. 

“In post-referendum Scotland, the concept of a marginal seat is rather obsolete. Huge swings to the SNP in national polls suggest that even some MPs who must have thought they had a job for life are threatened,” said Ashcroft.

Scottish Labour Leader Jim Murphy said the polls showed Labour had a big gap to close, but would ultimately benefit the Conservatives. "The more seats the SNP get from Labour, the more likely it is the Tories will be the biggest party and David Cameron will get into government through the back door. That would be a terrible outcome for Scotland but it's what might happen if Scotland votes SNP," he said.

Meanwhile SNP general election campaign director Angus Robertson MP warned against complacency in his party. “These seat-by-seat polls underline the extent to which Labour are paying a huge price for their toxic referendum alliance with the Tories,” he said.

The most popular outcome for May, Lord Ashcroft found, is a Labour-SNP coalition, with 39 per cent of voters, including 62 per cent of SNP supporters and 79 per cent of Labour-SNP switchers, favouring that option.

Ashcroft believes the swing will not be uniform across the country. “If a swing to the SNP of 21 per cent, the smallest in this range, were to be repeated across the board next May it would endanger 35 of Labour’s 41 seats in Scotland. But we cannot assume such a uniform swing. Most of the seats in this survey are in areas which returned a particularly strong yes vote in September, where the SNP attraction will naturally be greater; in future rounds of research we may find a different pattern where support for independence was lower.”