Kate Forbes preferred as next first minister but John Swinney ahead among SNP voters, polling reveals

Voters believe Kate Forbes would make a better first minister than John Swinney, new polling by Ipsos has shown.

But Swinney is the favourite among SNP voters, with nearly a third of those who backed the party in 2021 saying he would be the best choice.

Neither have formally declared their intention to run for the leadership of the SNP though both have indicated interest.

The leadership race was sparked after First Minister Humza Yousaf announced his intention to quit on Monday.

The Ipsos polling, conducted in 29-30 April, found Swinney and Forbes were neck and neck on how voters think they would perform as first minister.

Around 37 per cent believe the former deputy first minister would do a good job, while 23 per cent said he would do a bad job.

That compares with 37 per cent saying the former finance secretary would do a good job and 24 per cent saying a bad job.

But when asked to say who would be the best first minister out of a list of contenders, over a quarter (26 per cent) of respondents went for Forbes compared to a fifth (20 per cent) who said Swinney.

Among SNP voters, 30 per cent preferred Swinney while 21 per cent backed Forbes.

Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos in Scotland, said: “The SNP will be looking to select a leader who can unite the party, secure cooperation from opposition parties so that laws and budgets can be passed and reverse the party’s slide in the polls.

“While Swinney may be better placed than Forbes to address the first two of those, on the third point the evidence suggests that Forbes may currently have wider appeal among the electorate than Swinney does.”

Both contenders outperformed Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (31 per cent said he would do a good job as FM) and Douglas Ross (over half thought he would do a bad job).

But nearly two in five voters (39 per cent) said a Labour-led Scottish Government would do a better job than the current SNP-led administration.

Over half (55 per cent) of the public said a Conservative-led administration would do a worse job than the current Scottish Government.

The polling also revealed that the public was split on whether Yousaf’s decision to end the Bute House Agreement with the Scottish Greens was the right decision, at 45 per cent either way.

SNP voters were more likely to say it was the wrong decision (60 per cent).

The nomination period for the SNP leadership opened on Monday evening. Candidates will need to secure the support of 100 members from 20 different branches to make it onto the ballot paper by next Monday.