Jim Murphy set to lose his seat

Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy is set to lose his East Renfrewshire seat at the General Election, according to new constituency polling from Lord Ashcroft.

This latest round of polling puts support for Labour at 31 per cent, nine points behind the SNP on 40 per cent, in the Scottish Labour leader’s seat.

Meanwhile the SNP lead in each of the other eight constituencies polled, apart from Lib Dem MP Michael Moore’s seat of Berwickshire Roxburgh and Selkirk, where the party is neck and neck with the Lib Dems and the Tories (SNP 29, Con 30, Lib Dems 28).

The SNP lead has risen from eight to 11 points in Douglas Alexander’s seat of Paisley and Renfrewshire South, while the party has extended its lead over Scottish Labour from 3 to 21 points in Glasgow South West.

Murphy’s seat has a bigger Conservative share than many other Labour strongholds and so tactical voting could be a factor, Ashcroft indicated.

Over a third of Tory voters in East Renfrewshire refused to rule out voting Labour compared to just over one in ten who would rule out the SNP.

Ashcroft, writing on his blog, said: “I wanted to know whether the SNP surge had subsided in places I had previously surveyed; whether it threatened other incumbents, especially Lib Dems; and whether there were any potential surprises in store. The answers are no, yes and yes.

“In the three Labour seats the SNP are further ahead than when I polled them earlier in the year. They have extended their lead from three to 21 points in Glasgow South West, and from eight to eleven points in Douglas Alexander’s seat of Paisley & Renfrewshire South. In East Renfrewshire, the one-point Labour lead I found in February has become a nine-point advantage for the SNP."

“However, this seat has a bigger Conservative share than many other Labour strongholds (25%), and I found Conservative voters less likely to say they would rule out voting Labour (64%) than would rule out the SNP (87%).”