Child poverty in Scotland predicted to fall – but remains well above target

One in five children in Scotland will be living in poverty by 2029, a new report from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) predicts, a reduction from current levels.

The JRF’s annual poverty barometer, which analyses information from the Office for Budget Responsibility, indicates Scotland will be the only place in the UK in which child poverty will fall over the next five years.

This has been attributed to Scotland-specific policies relating to welfare.

However, the reduction falls short of meeting targets set by the Scottish Parliament, which was to have less than 10 per cent of children living in poverty by the end of financial year 2030/31.

First Minister John Swinney has repeatedly said his number one priority is to “eradicate” child poverty.

JRF associate director for Scotland, Chris Birt, said this report proves “how far we are from that day” and called for the Scottish Government and parliament to be held “fully accountable to make sure the progress made thus far is not the summit of our ambitions”.

He added: “What people in Scotland deserve is for both their governments to work in their interest. The Scottish Government has set themselves lofty ambitions, but the UK Government has also promised change but we need to see concerted efforts from UK Government, including on social security, to deliver the better society free from poverty that our children deserve.”

The child poverty rate in Scotland currently stands at 24 per cent, or one in four.

The expected reduction to one in five by 2029 is due to Scottish welfare policies, such at the Scottish Child Payment and the plan to mitigate the two-child cap, according to the report.

Social justice secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville said it was “very welcome” that the report indicated child poverty would drop – but she added there was “still much more to do”.

She said: “We are clear that no child should live in poverty in a country as prosperous as Scotland. This report should act as a wake-up call for the UK Government and shows them exactly what they need to do to support our efforts to end child poverty – including abolishing the two-child limit and delivering progress toward an Essentials Guarantee, which the Scottish Government has repeatedly called on them to do.”

By comparison, one in three children are forecast to be living in poverty in England in five years’ time.

The JRF concluded that the UK Government’s child poverty strategy – expected this spring – must include action on social security, particularly abolishing the two-child cap.

Scottish Office minister Kirsty McNeill said: “The best route out of poverty is secure, well-paid work, which is why we are delivering the biggest upgrade to workers’ rights in a generation, with an increase to the minimum wage and starting the process to ban exploitative zero hour contracts.

“Our reforms to Universal Credit mean families will be better off by around £420 a year on average and our child poverty taskforce, set to report in the spring, will seek lasting reductions to child poverty.

“This government ended austerity, with the largest settlement for the Scottish budget in history – an extra £4.9bn.”