The Scottish Tories are comfortable in opposition, but with Ruth Davidson back they have their sights set on 2021

“There’s a lot of currency for a First Minister who could be a unifying figure. Nicola Sturgeon banging on about independence is not it.”

After six months away from frontline politics, Ruth Davidson is back. And, as her comments in the Mail on Sunday suggest, she’s come back fighting.

“Having been out of the fray for six months, my overwhelming feeling from everyone I’ve been speaking to is they want people to come back together. They’re done with the fighting, they don’t want the division,” she said.

It is clear the Scottish Conservative leader is going to use Sturgeon’s desire for a second referendum before 2021 as a stick to beat her with. It’s almost like a ‘welcome back’ present for Davidson after her maternity leave as there’s nothing more important to the Tories than preserving the union.

In her absence, her party has been banging the union drum for her at a time when Brexit continues to divide the UK.

In true Davidson style, her number two, Jackson Carlaw, who has been at the helm of the Scottish Tories since October, attacked Sturgeon after she revealed her indyref2 plans.

After first using Brexit as a reason for the “material change in circumstances” that would enable her to put a second independence referendum back on the table, the First Minister then suggested on BBC Radio Scotland that she would press ahead with a second referendum regardless of the Brexit outcome.

She claimed “many people” would agree that Westminster’s treatment of Scotland during the Brexit process marked the “material change in circumstances” that would be necessary for the SNP to have a mandate for such a vote.

“Whatever the First Minister says about being ‘inclusive’, her statement is inherently divisive,” Carlaw said. “Astonishingly, the way Nicola Sturgeon thinks we can come together is for Scotland to be plunged into another divisive referendum within the next 18 months.

“That is frankly absurd. The SNP’s plan is clearly to divide families, workplaces and communities all over again, and for the foreseeable future.

“That is not what the majority of Scotland wants. People have had enough of constitutional politics and division. Yet, with the SNP, more of this is now inevitable.”

While Carlaw undoubtedly stepped up to the plate as interim leader during Davidson’s maternity leave, it is now time for her to take control and plan for the next election if the party is to have any chance of being a serious threat to the SNP.

As she told colleagues at the Conservative party conference in Birmingham last October: “Seven years ago, I came to conference looking to lead the party north of the border.

“I promised you I would grow the Conservative family in Scotland. Well, never let it be said I’m not a woman of my word.”

She added: “People keep asking me: ‘do you seriously think you can beat the SNP?’ Damn right I do.”

That confidence and strong public performance is Davidson’s trademark and has undoubtedly led to her party’s successes in Scotland and in Westminster. And even though Davidson has been out of the game for six months, polls still put the party comfortably in second place behind the SNP.

John McLellan, a Tory councillor in Edinburgh and former director of communications for the Scottish Conservatives, said that “only a fool would argue the direction in which [Davidson] has taken the party is wrong”, pointing to its victory in the independence referendum and sweeping gains in UK, Scottish and local elections.

Writing in the new book, Will the Tory Party Ever Be the Same?, McLellan argues that while Brexit has divided the party south of the border, it has united the Conservatives in Scotland.

“From a position in 2015 when Ruth Davidson’s popularity was thought by some to be echoing that of her predecessor by failing to deliver real electoral gains, by mid-2017, the party had become the second force in Scottish politics,” writes McLellan.

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“Despite the chaos of the EU withdrawal and attacks on domestic policies like the universal credit roll-out, there is little sign of that changing. Indeed, if anything, the party’s position is potentially stronger as the SNP-Green budget accord promises to deliver higher taxation with only the Conservatives able to mount effective counter-arguments.”

He adds: “It is true there are some on the outer fringes of the party who could choose a different path depending on the outcome of the Brexit process, but the vast majority of members recognise that the course set by both Ruth Davidson and Scottish Secretary David Mundell domestically delivers far greater clarity of purpose as far as the key objective of holding the United Kingdom together is concerned.

“Scotland has been in a perpetual political campaign ever since 2011 and the divisions created by Brexit seem tame compared to the bitterness experienced in the run-up to 2014 and beyond. It is also why Scottish Conservatives are united against the so-called ‘People’s Vote’ because of the precedent it could set for reopening 2014’s decisive result. Have those southern Conservatives backing a rerun considered that a second vote to leave the EU could trigger a second vote in Scotland to leave the UK? We are confident we would win again because support for independence has not shifted despite everything, but why should we have to?”

Davidson has made it clear that she will do everything she can to block a second Scottish independence referendum and has said that both Theresa May and the next Prime Minister – whoever that may be – should refuse to back a new vote on independence.

But the Tories can’t survive solely on a policy of opposing independence and preserving the union.

Some argue that while they are more than competent in opposition, they simply don’t have the policies to enable them to ever be anywhere other than in the SNP’s shadow.

James Mitchell, Professor of Public Policy at the University of Edinburgh, said in the New Statesman: “The Conservatives seem to me to be utterly opportunistic. It all seems to be opposing. They haven’t a clue about policy. I’m not even sure they are interested.”

But the party would certainly object to such comments, arguing it is already working on its manifesto for the 2021 Holyrood election, which Davidson says will focus on social policy and education.

In a book of essays produced last year outlining the party’s ideas behind a Scottish Conservative government in Scotland, she said: “While we will continue to defend Scotland’s place as an integral part of the United Kingdom, we also want to set out a positive agenda on social policy that shows how Scotland can build on that firm foundation.

“That agenda will focus on restoring Scottish education so it is seen, once again, as the best in the world. It is about tackling the underlying causes of social injustice that continues to damage the life chances of families across the country.

“Its aim is to make Scotland a genuine meritocracy, where everyone is given the opportunity to make the best of themselves, without barriers to their advancement.”

Donald Cameron, the party’s policy co-ordinator, said the policy team has been working on the early stages of the 2021 manifesto for the past year or so and that initial engagement with stakeholders and party members has been a “stimulating experience” which has “produced a number of interesting headline policy thoughts”.

He told Holyrood: “Our central themes will include reinvigorating Scotland’s stuttering economy and restoring Scotland’s education system, which are both areas we think the SNP has badly neglected over the last decade. In particular, we believe in re-examining the relationship between academic and vocational education, as well as considering a number of wider questions around skills and training.”

Meanwhile, the prospect of Boris Johnson as Prime Minister continues to threaten Tories north of the border, despite the so-called ‘Operation Arse’ campaign which was launched last year in a bid to block Johnson’s leadership ambitions.

Scottish Tories believe having Johnson at the helm of the UK party would seriously damage them, losing them votes in Scotland and costing them the 12 Westminster gains they made in 2017.

A ConservativeHome poll last week revealed the former London mayor had raced ahead in the contest to replace Theresa May, with an 18-point lead over his closest rival, Dominic Raab. The survey of party supporters revealed 33 per cent wanted him to take over as party leader when Theresa May steps down.

But while this particular Brexit consequence remains to be seen, it is unlikely that Davidson is losing too much sleep over it – after all, she has a six-month-old baby to take care of that for her.