The cost of security - how Paris informed the spending review

"I am a man, I am a husband, I am a son, brother, and cousin. I am a professional with skills and expertise to offer wherever I am and I have helped many people and I hope to do so in the future. I am Syrian. I am not just a refugee. I am not a statistic. And I am certainly not a burden.”

These were the words of a volunteer with the Scottish Refugee Council, seeking protection in the UK this month.

Over 3,000 miles lie between war-torn Syria and wet and windy Scotland, but a third of the 1,000 men, women and children the UK is resettling from UN-registered camps in Jordan and Lebanon before Christmas are heading north of the border. 20,000 Syrians are to be resettled in the UK over the current parliament, with Scotland taking around 10 per cent. 

Among those fleeing a fifth year of civil war in Syria are victims of torture and sexual violence, the elderly, disabled and the very young.

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The Home Office has worked with the United Nations to identify the most vulnerable, and with local authorities directly, to provide visa support and link with businesses and individuals offering to help.

As the first refugees landed in Scotland, there were many such offers. Around 2,000 offered help via the website scotlandwelcomesrefugees

Humza Yousaf, Minister for Europe and International Development, said the day the first refugees arrived was a “proud day for Scotland” and described the practical offers of support from ordinary people as “overwhelming”.
“I would like to offer my sincere thanks to all the partners that have worked tirelessly over the past few weeks to make the necessary arrangements for the arrivals. We will continue to have an important role to play in helping these refugees settle into their new lives in Scotland,” he said.

However, the entire country was not on board with the welcoming committee. Only three days before, seven coordinated terror attacks took place in Paris, carried out by Islamic militants who killed at least 130 people and injured hundreds more. Media reports said one of the suicide bombers had the passport of a Syrian who had entered Europe with refugees in Greece on 3 October.

After his comments, Yousaf became the target for racist abuse on social media, and police had to intervene. Some of the messages of hate accused the Glasgow MSP of supporting the terror organisation ISIS, who had taken credit for the Paris attack. 

One post on Facebook suggested the minister would be to blame if there was a terrorist attack on Britain.

MPs Mhairi Black and Natalie McGarry were also accused of “ruining” the country and its culture after they posted a video welcoming refugees. “Get them all out ov [sic] Scotland we don’t want them heer” [sic], one follower replied on Facebook. Another suggested the “snp actually help there [sic] own”.

Black responded angrily. “To pour ignorant bile and thinly veiled racism onto social media is cruel and so disappointing,” she posted. “We have a duty as human beings to do all we can to protect and shelter people who face the very kind of threats and attacks which appalled us so much in Paris in their everyday lives.”

The Paisley Daily Express splashed the names and pictures of people in the local community who had published hatred and fear of the incoming refugees on the front page.

Sadly, the reaction was not limited to the internet. Anti-Muslim hate crimes soared by 300 per cent across Britain in the wake of the terrorist incident. The morning before the first refugees arrived, a couple were violently assaulted by a gang of 15 in Methil as they closed their takeaway business, claiming their attackers repeatedly cited the Paris attacks. 

The next day, a community centre used as a mosque in Bishopbriggs was set on fire, in what the police are now treating as wilful fire-raising. 

This led to community leaders urging Scottish Muslims to keep their head down. “The chatter within the community is, don’t let your wives, daughters or sisters go out alone, make sure someone goes with them. Which is just ridiculous considering where we live,” Nabeel Shaikh, general secretary of Glasgow Central Mosque, told Glasgow’s Evening Times. “There’s a feeling that this isn’t acceptable, that the situation is getting worse and there’s a definite increase in anxiety on the back of the fire attack.”

Politicians used a Holyrood debate of condolence for the Paris attacks to urge tolerance among Scotland’s citizens. 

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said: “It is, of course, a normal and entirely understandable human instinct to be anxious and fearful in light of what happened on Friday night – we all feel it.
“But we must also together, as a society, resist the instinct to retreat or to turn on each other. Our response must be one of defiance and solidarity, not fear and division.”

Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale urged Scots to look at the refugees “like we do those Parisians who fled the violence on Friday evening. People, like you and I, who don’t want to live in fear of constant violence”.

However, the surge in hate crime continued. Deputy Chief Constable Iain Livingstone said he was “disappointed” to reveal Police Scotland had received increasing reports of “racially and religiously motivated crime” following the terrorist attack. He told reporters a number of the incidents were “a direct result of what happened in Paris last Friday. They would not have happened if that attack hadn’t happened”.

Crimes included assaults, death threats, verbal abuse and playground bullying in schools.

“People of all the faiths, and of none, should live in a Scotland that is free from hate crime and discrimination. The vast majority of Scotland respects the rule of law and welcomes diversity across the communities we live in. Collectively, it is individuals and communities that defeat terrorism, which is why we must sustain the strong relationships that exist in Scotland between our communities and their police service,” said Livingstone.

On Saturday the Scottish Trades Union Congress (STUC) held its St Andrew’s day anti-racism rally to welcome the refugees. 

General secretary Grahame Smith said the STUC had been “saddened” to note a rise in community tensions.

“Scotland’s Muslim community cannot, and should not, be held responsible for the despicable acts of extremists here, across Europe or in Syria. At this time it is important that we continue to pursue our values of peace and tolerance and show that Scotland is a welcoming and warm nation where everyone’s human rights are respected,” he said.

But while attempts in Scotland to keep the language welcoming and reconciliatory grew louder, defiance, anger and retribution dominated the narrative in the fallout of the Paris attacks throughout the UK, and it was against this backdrop that the government agenda became set as the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement approached. 

In his statement to the Commons on Paris, Prime Minister David Cameron said: “There is no government in Syria we can work with, particularly not in that part of Syria. There are no rigorous police investigations or independent courts upholding justice in Raqqa. We have no military on the ground to detain those preparing plots against our people. In this situation, we do not protect the British people by sitting back and wishing that things were different. We have to act to keep our people safe.” The terrorist headquarters in Raqqa, he said, is the “head of the snake”.

And as support for military action grew, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn looked increasingly isolated.  The man elected with the largest mandate of any Labour leader from party members and supporters saw his views undermined publicly in the press and among his own party. 

In an interview he told the BBC he was “not happy” with the police operating a shoot to kill policy. “The idea you end up with a war on the streets is not a good thing,” he said.
This prompted angry exchanges in the party’s executive committee and meeting of the parliamentary group, some of which spilled out onto the floor of the Commons and into the press. Reports emerged that the Labour leader was “aggressively heckled” in the meeting of MPs.

Corbyn’s views on security have not sat comfortably with his peers since his election. Shadow defence minister Angela Eagle publicly clashed with him after outgoing Chief of the Defence Staff, Sir Nicholas Houghton, marked Remembrance Sunday by saying Corbyn’s unwillingness to use nuclear weapons undermined their use as a deterrent. 

Former home secretary Lord John Reid also took a swipe at his leadership style. “It doesn’t look coherent if when the leader says something, within the day, a shadow cabinet person – and a series of them – have to come out and disagree, contradict, clarify it, say he wasn’t saying what he was saying,” he said. 

And as the prospect of a vote on military action in Syria grew closer, so did that of an open rebellion in the Labour Party against the anti-war leadership.

The SNP, uncharacteristically, also hinted at internal differences of opinion. First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said she was “prepared to listen” to the case for war. “Given what is happening, what has happened, I think it would be irresponsible not to do that,” she said. But her predecessor and the SNP’s foreign affairs spokesman in the House of Commons, Alex Salmond, was more bullish.

“We haven’t heard in the SNP benches anything yet that would convince us that being the thirteenth country to start bombing in Syria is going to make any material difference whatsoever to anything.

“What we’d like to hear is far, far more about diplomatic initiatives through the United Nations and also the real practical things like interrupting the financial flows into Daesh to actually make a material difference to what’s happening in the Middle East,” he told the BBC’s Andrew Neil.

A focus on security on the home front, too, became a talking point. David Cameron told the Commons he believed in “going after” both violent and non-violent extremists. 
“It cannot be said enough that the extremist ideology is not true Islam. But it doesn’t work to deny any connection between the religion of Islam and the extremists, not least, because these extremists self-identify themselves as Muslims. There is no point denying that. 

“We need to take apart their arguments and demonstrate they are wrong. In doing so, we need the continued help of Muslim communities and Muslim scholars. They are playing a powerful role and I commend them for their absolutely essential work. We cannot stand neutral in this battle of ideas.”

This battle of ideas would be underpinned by the biggest increase in security spending since the 7/7 London bombings, the Prime Minister announced. 1,900 extra security and intelligence staff will be recruited at MI5, MI6 and GCHQ, aviation security officers will be doubled and the Special Forces will be boosted by an extra £2bn investment. 

Two 5,000-strong “strike brigades” were announced as part of  £12bn extra defence spending in the Strategic Defence and Security Review, to be partially offset by a 30 per cent cut in the MoD’s civilian workforce. Nine Boeing P8 maritime patrol aircraft are to be based in Lossiemouth.

The increased security investments marked the first announcements ahead of the Chancellor’s Spending Review, but bucked the trend of George Osborne’s predicted list of cuts in public expenditure. Government departments were asked to draw up £20bn of cuts. Seven of the smaller departments settled for 21 per cent cuts, which looked to leave the big five – Business, Communities and Local Government, Justice, the Home Office and non-schools education – to bear the brunt.

However the narrative would play out differently. Concerns the police budget would be cut proved to be unfounded as Osborne promised to protect it. “The police protect us and we are going to protect the police,” he said.

Home Secretary Theresa May’s  official spokeswoman reassured concerned police officers: “We are absolutely clear that we will do everything necessary to keep our people safe. We will be looking at what additional resources we can provide to the security and intelligence agencies as part of that.

“We have very good co-operation between our law enforcement agencies on counter-terrorism. We are working with the police and the security and intelligence agencies and others very closely on this.”

And while defence and security were awarded increased investment, the slashing of other government departments’ budgets were not as deep as many had feared.

A plan to save £4.4bn by cutting tax credits to working families was scrapped, in what proved to be Osborne’s rabbit-from-the-hat moment. It was a move which surprised many Conservative MPs as well as the many voices who had campaigned against the idea.

“Because I’ve been able to announce today an improvement in the public finances, the simplest thing to do is not to phase these changes in, but to avoid them altogether,” Osborne said.

Opponents warned cuts to family budgets would still come, in the guise of the phasing in of universal credit. John Dickie, director of the Child Poverty Action Group (CPAG) in Scotland said: “His decision to drop the latest tax credit cuts is very welcome and will be a huge relief to struggling parents but, as the Treasury’s own costings reveal, significant cuts to universal credit mean that in reality this a stay of execution rather than a full reprieve.”  

Cabinet colleagues had lobbied and squabbled over where the axe would fall, but in the end the OBR came to the Chancellor’s rescue, forecasting up its forecast for income tax and national insurance contributions this parliament by almost £15bn. This meant only three departments saw the level of cuts feared -Transport, environment and energy - with resource budgets falling by 37 per cent, 15 per cent and 22 per cent respectively. 

However a new levy on apprenticeships of 0.5 per cent will also see a reduction in average earnings, according to the OBR forecast. Also predicted is a fall in household disposable incomes.
Other tax rises outlined include the option for councils to add a two per cent levy on council tax bills to pay for social care, and a three per cent increase in stamp duty on second homes in England.

Meanwhile Scotland’s block grant will be more than £30bn in 2019-20 while capital spending available for Scotland will rise by £1.9bn by 2021, said the Chancellor. Scotland’s Finance Secretary John Swinney said it meant the Scottish Government was facing a 5.7 per cent cut in its day-to-day budget.

“The Scottish Government has consistently demonstrated that the UK’s deficit and debt can be brought down without the need for huge public spending cuts. These cuts are damaging, needless and will hit the poorest hardest,” he said.

However much rests on the outcome of negotiations on Scotland’s fiscal framework, which Osborne said was now up to the Scottish Government. “We are ready now to reach an agreement – the ball is in the Scottish Government’s court,” he said. “Let’s have a deal that’s fair to Scotland, fair to the UK and that’s built to last. We’re implementing the city deal with Glasgow, and negotiating deals for Aberdeen and Inverness too.”

Think tank IPPR Scotland warned non-protected government departments in Scotland could see their budgets fall by over a tenth by 2020 as a result of the Spending Review. Given the Scottish Government has committed to protect budgets for the NHS, colleges, build 50,000 new homes and increase hours of free childcare, other budgets face a cumulative real-terms cut of 11.3 per cent, its report warned. This could mean stark prospects for areas such as justice, local government, the environment, care, employment and other parts of the education system. The analysis suggested reversing these cuts entirely through an income tax rise would add around 3p to every income tax rate in Scotland.

IPPR Scotland director Russell Gunson said the hard choices on cuts would be partly dictated by Scotland’s new fiscal arrangement.

“The new powers from the Smith Commission may offer hope for later in the next parliament, as tax-raising and borrowing powers come into effect, decoupling more of the budget in Scotland from the spending decisions of the UK Government. However, much depends on how these changes are implemented, and how the ongoing Scottish block grant is calculated, which is still very much up in the air,” he said.

In the climate of cuts, the Scottish Police Federation warned they would be unequipped and under-resourced to deal with a terrorist attack in Scotland. 

“We need only look at the recent horrific events in Paris and particularly the tactical capabilities and the speed at which they were deployed to come to the conclusion that Scotland is woefully under-equipped, under-resourced and under prepared,” said  general secretary Calum Steele. 

The OBR also predicted North Sea oil revenues will be down by 94 per cent this year on last, which Mr Osborne said would have meant “catastrophic cuts to Scottish public services” under an independent Scotland. However the increased military spending would benefit Scotland, he added.

And while SNP deputy leader Stewart Hosie predicted a “decade of austerity” for Scotland, Labour’s shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, used the opportunity to outline an alternative economic model, one which reflected the direction of the party’s new leadership. Security, he argued, would not be achieved by the ideology of austerity.

“Austerity, as I argued in September and have continued to argue, is a straight political choice. There is no economic necessity behind it. There is a broad consensus, from the International Monetary Fund and across the economics profession, against it. Austerity is a political choice. It threatens our future economic security,” he said. 

There would be no deadline for clearing the country’s deficit, he said. “George Osborne may be trying to close the fiscal deficit but by failing to invest, he is opening up a massive deficit with the future.”

The UK’s future economic base should be based on technology and investment in research and development, emulating the success of Finland in the 1990s, according to McDonnell.
He called this vision “socialism with an iPad”, in what was widely seen as a poor choice of soundbite. A joke involving Chairman Mao’s Little Red Book as part of his response to the Autumn statement went down similarly badly with party comrades. 

On economics, too, Labour’s clash of mandates breeds civil war. And war, as Scotland’s newest Syrian residents can attest, is costly.