Polling analysis: Nothing looks like halting the SNP bandwagon

Finding someone who thinks that next year’s Holyrood election will result in anything other than a convincing SNP victory is as tough as finding a Labour, Tory or Lib-Dem MP these days, and it’s not hard to see why.

This year has been one in which the referendum’s winners have become losers and vice versa. Although the polls were correct in showing SNP support at around 50 per cent ahead of the general election, it was not until the early hours of May 8th that Labour’s dominance in Westminster crumbled seat by seat and the scale of the SNP’s achievement became apparent.

And there is no reason to think that May 2016 will be anything other than a repeat performance.

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True, the Additional Member System will likely prevent the scale of meltdown in opposition seats witnessed this year, but the current indications suggest a second overall majority for the nationalists is a distinct possibility.

Our own polling, most recently from August, highlights how SNP support has soared, in particular over the last 12 months. More widely, no poll conducted since May this year has shown the SNP constituency vote below 50 per cent. Moreover, the SNP leads Scottish Labour on the regional vote by at least 20 percentage points in every poll conducted over the same period.

And if the other parties think that recent negative headlines for the Government over key issues such as educational standards and the performance of Police Scotland might signal a change in public attitudes, they may be disappointed.

On almost all the key devolved issues, voters tend to think that the SNP has ‘the best policies for Scotland’ (the only exception is the environment, where the Greens come out on top). In the case of health, education and crime policy, the party’s lead is as significant as its lead in voting intention, suggesting that those headlines do not, at the moment, appear to be damaging the party electorally.  

This is particularly bleak for Scottish Labour, whose intended strategy of holding the SNP to account for its nine years in office looks unlikely at this stage to be a vote winner.

And the nationalists’ policy dominance is reflected in views of the party leaders. The First Minister enjoys an approval rating of over 70 per cent, a figure matched by only Tony Blair in the early days of his administration, and significantly eclipsing her rival party leaders at a Scottish or UK level.

Further ahead, the SNP faces significant challenges. The devolution of more tax powers may lead the party, if still in government, to make difficult and potentially unpopular decisions on how revenue is raised, and there remains the thorny issue over the timing of any second independence referendum.

Of course, the mood can change and events can affect election outcomes. But as things stand, nothing looks like halting the SNP bandwagon next year.