Despite all the retirements, the 2026 parliament may not be that different at all

Instagram is an unusual platform to announce major political news, but it’s the one Nicola Sturgeon chose to confirm she would not be seeking re-election next year.

Perhaps it’s a sign of where she sees the next stage of her life and career – as a writer, an author, an influencer, and, in her own words, “Nicola Sturgeon the person” rather than the politician. And now with confirmation she’s been cleared by police following the Operation Branchform investigation into the SNP’s finances – while her estranged husband Peter Murrell has appeared in court charged with embezzlement – she can move forward without the baggage of the last few years.

The news of her retirement was not unexpected. While the former first minister had earlier in the year submitted the requisite paperwork and undergone vetting, few people believed she’d seek a seventh term.

I am sad to be closing the book on this remarkable and deeply fulfilling chapter of my life

She has not spent much time in parliament since stepping down from the top job two years ago, speaking only six times in the chamber, serving on no committee, nor joining any cross-party group. She’s also kept a relatively low media profile, aside from the news of her split from Murrell (also announced on Instagram) and a few social media selfies with celebrity pals. All of this was a sure sign of her imminent retirement.

Sure enough, Sturgeon posted that “the time is right to open a new chapter in my life”. While “reaching this decision has been far from easy,” she said, she wanted to “embrace different opportunities” beyond elected politics.

“In making this announcement, it is inevitable that I feel a mixture of sorrow and anticipation,” she continued. “I am sad to be closing the book on this remarkable and deeply fulfilling chapter of my life, but I am also hugely excited about the start of a new phase, in which I will discover different ways to advance the causes I care so much about.”

The response to her decision was mixed, reflecting her ongoing divisiveness even two years after leaving office. Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay used First Minister’s Questions the following day to criticise her record, claiming she had a “vast back catalogue of failures” from education through to “the SNP’s gender obsession”. On the other side, Scottish Greens co-leader Lorna Slater said Sturgeon’s “time leading Scotland is certainly one that she can be proud of”. Scottish Labour’s Anas Sarwar was careful to tread the line between criticism and compliment, simply saying: “Whilst I have many disagreements with her, I never doubted her passion for Glasgow and Scotland. I wish her well for the future.”

Sturgeon’s departure from the frontline may have been expected, but it’s still a major moment in Scotland’s devolution journey. She is one of the few remaining parliamentarians to have sat in Holyrood since 1999. That club – so diminished after a chunk of its members retired in 2021 – is set to shrink further still next year, with finance secretary Shona Robison, transport secretary Fiona Hyslop, business minister Richard Lochhead, former health secretary Michael Matheson and backbencher Christine Grahame all calling it quits.

That’s three cabinet secretaries and four junior ministers John Swinney will lose next year, not to mention experienced former ministers

That could leave just three MSPs who have served in parliament continuously for the whole of devolution: First Minister John Swinney, Scottish Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie, and Fergus Ewing (who may return as an Independent – yesterday he announced he would not seek an SNP nomination, citing government failures to deliver on the A9 and A96). Interestingly, this trio are the only 99ers to hold onto the same constituencies they won back then.

High turnover in the last few elections has led to some concerns about the loss of institutional memory. After the 2021 election, when 34 members retired, many long-standing MSPs felt the difference – especially when it came to scrutiny and working across party lines. Some of the newer intake admit to not feeling as supported as they could have been upon arrival four years ago, partly due to coronavirus restrictions preventing the normal inductions but also having fewer colleagues from whom to learn.

And all the signs point to an even higher turnover next year. So far, 29 MSPs have announced they will retire – 22 of them SNP members, three Conservatives, two Labour, one Lib Dem and one independent.

Cynics might look at that disproportionately high SNP number and suggest it’s a sign of a party on the wane. But for one thing. There is no sign that the party is necessarily headed for defeat – even before Labour tanked in the polls after taking office at UK level, Scottish Labour and the SNP were largely neck-and-neck when voters were asked about the Holyrood election.

Rather, it’s more of a sign of the make-up of the parliamentary party and its selection process. Most SNP MSPs hold constituency seats, and the party aims to have all candidates for those in place a year before the election. Nominations for selection are open until 7 April and candidates will be confirmed in early May. That’s why these announcements have all come at once, and why it might seem like the party’s haemorrhaging more MSPs than other parties.

Still, the names of people standing down has generated some surprise – and sparked suggestions the party faces a ‘talent drain’.

Rural affairs secretary Mairi Gougeon – previously perceived as a rising star – made the shock announcement that after 10 years in politics she won’t seek another term. Others stepping down include children’s minister Natalie Don-Innes, higher education minister Graeme Dey and drugs minister Christina McKelvie. Along with Robison, Hyslop and Lochhead, that’s three cabinet secretaries and four junior ministers John Swinney will lose next year, not to mention experienced former ministers including Humza Yousaf, Elena Whitham and Joe FitzPatrick.

I will consider my ministerial team when I consider my ministerial team. I am not currently considering my ministerial team

Amid all this anticipated change to the parliamentary group next year, there is a more immediate question for Swinney: whether he should reshuffle his ministerial team now or not. Doing so would allow him to be on the front foot, providing a sense of preparedness and being able to show the electorate exactly what government they would be voting for.

Asked about the prospect of a reshuffle earlier this month, Swinney enigmatically told journalists: “Obviously I will consider my ministerial team when I consider my ministerial team. I am not currently considering my ministerial team. So, I will get round to that if I decide to.”

A few things coincide in the coming weeks to make the possibility perhaps more tempting. Not only is it a year until the election, the start of May also marks a year for Swinney as first minister. His initial ministerial team was less designed by him than bequeathed to him by Yousaf, who had only weeks before his resignation undertaken a mini-reshuffle. Aside from bringing in Kate Forbes as deputy first minister and economy secretary, Swinney left the cabinet untouched – presumably alert to the risk that more changes would further instil the idea the SNP was in chaos.

There is also the imminent return of Mairi McAllan, the net zero secretary, from maternity leave, and what to do with her cover, Gillian Martin. Both women are considered able politicians with good track records. So too is Ivan McKee, the ambitious junior finance minister who played a key role in winning the support of the Greens and Lib Dems in the last budget negotiations. Swinney will want to ensure they stick around.

Of the 145 individuals approved after vetting, just under half are current or former parliamentarians

The obvious downside of doing a reshuffle this side of the election is that it freezes out anyone other than incumbents, including MPs and former MPs jockeying for positions at Holyrood. Waiting until after would at least ensure a wider pool from which Swinney can select his team, injecting new blood, and perhaps fresh talent, into a government that is faltering after 18 years.

But on that note, there are questions around how new the talent will be. The sheer number of MSPs that are deciding to leave frontline politics might feel like gargantuan change is afoot, but in reality, those looking to replace them are by and large known.

SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn and his fellow MPs Stephen Gethins and Dave Doogan all announced last year that they would seek to become 2026 candidates. In addition, a list of approved potential parliamentary candidates obtained by Holyrood showed 17 former MPs – most of whom were ousted last July – are also trying to get selected. Two former MSPs – former local government minister Marco Biagi and former MEP Christian Allard – also appear on the list.

Indeed, of the 145 individuals approved after vetting, just under half are current or former parliamentarians. Almost as many are sitting councillors, while only one in five don’t currently hold elected office at all. Of those, a number are or have recently been employed as staff by the party – including two of Swinney’s special advisers, Olaf Stando and Jack Middleton.

Another question for Swinney is how he will maintain his party’s gender balance. Two-thirds of the MSPs retiring are women, and alongside the fact the only one of nine of the SNP’s MPs is female, the first minister has been asked whether his party might have a woman problem.

“No, I don’t think that,” he replied. “I think there are some big issues about how women feel in public life because of the amount of abuse that’s hurled about… I want to give every signal I possibly can do; I want to encourage women to participate in public life and in politics and to come forward for election and for us to benefit from their contribution.”

While much of the focus so far has been on the SNP, other parties are also losing experienced members

Despite his assurances, the SNP appears to be stepping back on its commitments. A rule implemented in 2021 which meant retiring MSPs had to be replaced by female candidates has been scrapped. The internal website says there is “no legal basis for corrective mechanisms to be used” because the party achieved 50/50 gender balance at the last election. Widely seen as a move to ensure Flynn can make his bid, it hasn’t helped reduce the impression that the party has returned to being a bit of a boys’ club.

While much of the focus so far has been on the SNP, other parties are also losing experienced members. Liz Smith, Edward Mountain and Oliver Mundell will not return to the Tory benches next year, while Labour will lose its former leader Richard Leonard and Alex Rowley. Beatrice Wishart, of the Lib Dems, has also announced her intention not to stand. All in, that’s over a fifth of parliament set to retire and there’s still a year for more announcements to be made.

It is rumoured at least two further well-kent faces in Scottish Labour will not contest the election, but confirmation may not come for several months as the party selects its candidates in tranches. Six sitting MSPs – including leader Anas Sarwar – have been formally adopted by local branches so far. The Scottish Conservatives’ process is also underway, with local selections starting in the coming weeks.

Both these parties are, however, more reliant on regional MSPs than the SNP. That means sitting parliamentarians won’t necessarily have to make an announcement until much closer to the election, as list candidates don’t need time to build name recognition in the same way.

The make-up of the seventh session of the Scottish Parliament will undoubtedly to be much changed from this one. Yet many of the new faces in Holyrood come next May might not be all that new to Scottish politics. Unless, of course, there is a significant shake-up – sparked, for example, by a change of government or even a major breakthrough by an outside party.