Can the SNP maintain momentum going into 2016 Holyrood election?

In the early hours of 19 September last year, the SNP’s long-held dream of an independent Scotland was vanishing quickly as the results of the referendum vote started to trickle in. Months of claim and counter claim, controversies and entreaties from both Yes and Better Together culminated in a decisive and resounding desire for Scotland to remain part of the Union.

For the SNP, the result was a disaster. After all, this was the party’s mandate and this is what its members had been working towards for years. When the SNP first formed a minority government at Holyrood in 2007, the prospect of an independence referendum suddenly looked more likely.

However, it wasn’t until 2011 when the party won an unprecedented majority – something which should have been almost impossible – that Scotland woke up to the fact a referendum was going to happen.

With this majority, the SNP government now had a mandate from the Scottish people to make their dreams a reality. In October 2012 the Edinburgh Agreement was signed by Prime Minister David Cameron and then First Minister Alex Salmond and as a result, the Scottish Parliament passed the Scottish Independence Referendum Act 2013 and Scottish Independence Referendum (Franchise) Act 2013 to set out the arrangements for the vote.

At the time, Cameron said: “I always wanted to show respect to the people of Scotland – they voted for a party that wanted to have a referendum, I’ve made that referendum possible and made sure that it is decisive, it is legal and it is fair.”

From there the vote became a certainty and the two sides began their campaigns. After a long fight, with both sides appearing to come out on top at different times, on 18 September, 55 per cent said they wanted to stay part of the United Kingdom.

The next day, First Minister Alex Salmond announced his intention to resign, saying his time as leader was nearly over, but “for Scotland, the campaign continues and the dream shall never die”.
These words turned out to be more fortuitous than anyone could have imagined. While many expected the SNP to skulk off under a rock and lick their wounds after such a damning result, just days later the party was recording a rocketing membership.

Indeed, by the time newly appointed leader and First Minster Nicola Sturgeon delivered a keynote speech to a packed SSE Hydro event in Glasgow on 22 November last year, party membership had reached 92,187 – compared to some 25,000 on referendum day.

During the speech, she said: “I am in no doubt that independence, and exercising full powers in Scotland, is the best future for this nation – and would also act as a catalyst for reform south of the border.

“The UK remains one of the most centralised states in the western world, with far too much concentration of political, economic and financial power in London and the south-east corner of these islands. That isn’t just a problem for Scotland, which of course we are seeking to do something about via the Smith Commission, and ensuring that the Westminster parties deliver on their vow of ‘extensive new powers’. It is also a problem for other nations and regions of the UK, such as the north of England, Wales, Merseyside, Newcastle and Northern Ireland.

“My aim is that the SNP wins the General Election in Scotland, and there is every prospect of a hung parliament at Westminster. The SNP would never act to put the Tories in power. In these circumstances, our constructive approach is that the SNP will seek common cause in a balanced parliament with progressive forces across the regions of England, Wales and Northern Ireland to rebalance the UK in political and economic terms.”

The subsequent general election campaign was fought with the SNP firmly as a focus for the whole of the UK and prior to the vote itself, polling suggested the SNP would gain considerably. However, few could have predicted that on 8 May, the party would dominate Scotland with 56 MPs, leaving only one seat apiece for the Tories, Labour and Lib Dems, and become the third largest party in the House of Commons.

SNP Westminster leader Angus Robertson MP said the SNP would be a real opposition to the Conservatives. He said: “For the sake of people in Scotland and across the UK, it is vital that there is a strong and effective opposition to the Tory government at Westminster – and that is a responsibility the SNP are ready and willing to discharge. We will work in partnership with the Scottish Government and members of the Scottish Parliament, and are prepared to reach out across party lines at Westminster.

“Indeed, I believe that the SNP will form the real opposition to the Tories. Labour have failed to develop a strong alternative to the Tory agenda in a range of areas including austerity, the economy, the welfare state and Europe, the issues that look set to be at the forefront of business in the new House of Commons.

“The SNP, by contrast, have a powerful manifesto mandate to oppose austerity, propose investment in job creation, speak out against cuts in benefits for disabled people, and insist that the UK cannot leave the European Union unless all four of its constituent parts agree.

“Effective SNP opposition to the Tories will certainly be good for Scotland, but leading this progressive alternative will also be to the benefit of people throughout the UK.”

However, the outlook is not all rosy. As members prepare for a packed autumn conference in Aberdeen, the party faces tough questions on a number of subjects.

For example, one of their newly elected MPs, Michelle Thomson, was forced to resign from the SNP whip in the House of Commons over allegations regarding property deals. She had been the party’s business spokeswoman but decided to resign as a police inquiry is being carried out into a solicitor who was struck off by the Law Society of Scotland over deals carried out on Thomson’s behalf. She has denied any wrongdoing or illegal activity. She has also been referred to the Commons standards watchdog over the allegations.

Nicola Sturgeon said: “Everybody, even politicians, is entitled to the presumption of innocence, so let the investigations take their course and then whatever action that has to follow from them can then be determined.”

Culture Secretary Fiona Hyslop has also come under increasing pressure for failing to answer questions on a Scottish Government payment of £150,000 to the T in the Park music festival. Scottish Labour has called for Hyslop to make a full ministerial statement on the issue, while the Scottish Conservatives want First Minister Nicola Sturgeon to intervene.

DF Concerts, a private company that runs the music festival, was awarded the grant after a meeting brokered by Jennifer Dempsie, a former SNP aid. Hyslop told Holyrood’s Education and Culture Committee the funding was appropriate, transparent and in line with amounts given to other events. She said she had been “standing up” for the event.

“My interest is the economic interest of this country and the cultural offering we have got for generations of young people, and the development of the contemporary music scene in Scotland,” she said.

However, the committee queried why 600 pages of heavily redacted documents were only released at 8pm prior to the committee meeting. Scottish Labour’s deputy leader, Alex Rowley, said the Culture Secretary’s appearance was “unsatisfactory” and called for a full parliamentary statement.

“I don’t think anyone could hold that up as a shining example of transparent government, so it’s not surprising that some of the cabinet secretary’s answers were greeted with incredulity. Between the committee evidence and the freedom of information documents, the last twenty-four hours have raised more questions than they have answered,” he said.

The documents appear to show a meeting between Dempsie and Hyslop at the SNP conference, before discussions with government officials, but it unclear what was discussed. It is also unclear what the £150,000 was spent on. Dempsie had planned to stand for the SNP in next year’s Holyrood election but withdrew her nomination this month.

Following her appearance at the committee, members unanimously agreed to write to Hyslop with follow-up questions on the funding.

The Scottish Government has also been forced to defend its record on education. Announcing the Programme for Government last month, Sturgeon said improving attainment is the government’s “highest priority” in the coming years.

Speaking to MSPs, she said: “Improving it overall and closing the gap between children in our most and least deprived areas is fundamental to our aim of making Scotland fairer and more prosperous. Education in Scotland is already good and getting better. [In August], young people achieved a record number of passes at Higher and Advanced Higher.

"However, despite some encouraging evidence that it might be narrowing slightly, the attainment gap is still too large. To address it, we need to be open to innovation and new practice; that is the purpose of our £100 million attainment fund.

“However, we also need to have better information about attainment so that we measure progress consistently and drive change. We need to be able to see what is working and where we still need to improve. I can confirm that we will establish a new national improvement framework – a draft of it is being published today.

"We will introduce new national standardised assessments for pupils in primaries 1, 4 and 7, and in the third year of secondary school. The new assessments will focus on literacy and numeracy. They will be piloted next year in schools participating in the attainment challenge and then be introduced in all schools in 2017.”

Opposition parties were quick to point out the Scottish Government has a poor record when it comes to education. Labour leader Kezia Dugdale said: “The First Minister has asked us to look at her government’s record. She says that it is a strong foundation for the future, but if we look at children who are in their final year of primary school, who have so far spent every day of their school years under this government, we do not see a record of which to be proud.

“We see that 93 per cent of children in primary seven who come from the least deprived backgrounds are performing well at reading, compared with just 81 per cent of the children from the most deprived backgrounds – a 12 per cent gap in reading. When it comes to writing, the figures are 77 per cent of children from the least-deprived backgrounds compared with just 56 per cent from the most-deprived backgrounds – a 21 per cent gap. In numeracy, 77 per cent of kids from the least deprived areas are reaching the appropriate levels, compared with just 53 per cent from the most deprived areas, so there is a 24 per cent gap in numeracy between the richest and poorest pupils.”

While the SNP’s political opponents have been, metaphorically, rubbing their hands together with glee at these events, will it make a difference to the electorate?

Since May, polling has suggested support for the SNP remains strong in Scotland. In July, a Survation poll for the Scottish Daily Mail put the SNP on 56 per cent in constituency voting intentions for next year’s election. The figure is an increase from 54 per cent recorded in Survation’s last Holyrood opinion poll in late April. If these results became reality, the SNP’s majority at the Scottish Parliament would increase to 71. A TNS poll at the start of September put support for the SNP in the constituency vote for May’s Scottish Parliament elections at 58 per cent of those who expressed a preference. Another TNS poll released on 8 October put the SNP on 56 per cent in the constituency vote and 52 per cent on the regional list.

However, public appetite for a second referendum appears to be mixed. While the Survation poll in July put support for the UK at 47 per cent, with Yes on 43 per cent and 10 per cent undecided, the TNS poll of 1,023 adults found 47 per cent would vote Yes if a second referendum was held tomorrow, compared to 42 per cent who would back No and 11 per cent who said they did not know.

Sturgeon has said the SNP’s manifesto for the 2016 Holyrood election will set out the timescale for a possible second referendum on independence. She confirmed the document will lay out the circumstances under which another vote might be “appropriate”. Sturgeon and the SNP have come under increased pressure to clarify their position on a second vote.

She said: “Our manifesto will set out what we consider are the circumstances and the timescale on which a second referendum might be appropriate, but we can only propose. It’s then for people in Scotland, whether it is in this election or in future elections, to decide whether they want to vote for our manifesto and then if there is in the future another independence referendum, whether that’s in five years or ten years or whenever, it will be down to the people of Scotland to decide whether they want to vote for independence or not. So at every single stage this is something that is driven by and decided by the people of Scotland, not by politicians.”

Sturgeon had previously said a material change in circumstances, such as Scotland being taken out of the EU against its will in the forthcoming in-out referendum on UK membership, could act as a trigger for a second referendum on independence.

She said: “Ironically, given the scaremongering about our European Union membership during the independence referendum, if we find ourselves being taken out of Europe against our will, I think it is beyond any doubt that people will at least want to consider again the question of independence.

“I’ve always believed that Scotland will become an independent country, so there’s no change in position there. I think that’s the direction of travel we’re on. But that’s my opinion; I’m one person, one politician. Whether I end up being proved right or wrong will be down to what the majority of people in Scotland decide.”

As of 18 September this year, membership of the party was sitting at 112,208 and while opinion polls continue to show positive results, it appears the shine has not come off the SNP just yet, despite recent controversies. Whether the party can maintain the momentum it has enjoyed since last September remains to be seen, but given the levels of support and the passionate adoration from members and non-members alike, it doesn’t look like the SNP in Holyrood is going anywhere soon.