Analysis: 2016 proved it's not just Scotland where politics is unpredictable

2016 in review - image credit: Aimee Wachtel

At first glance, the sight of David Cameron taking to the steps of Downing Street to launch an early morning, post-referendum press conference seemed weirdly familiar.

September 2014, after all, still does not feel too long ago. But while the last time Cameron had emerged in front of the cameras it had been in victory, this time the tone was quite different.

Standing in front of the press, the Prime Minister announced his resignation to a country waking up to the news of the Brexit vote.

“I fought this campaign in the only way I know how, which is to say directly and passionately what I think and feel – head, heart and soul. I held nothing back, I was absolutely clear about my belief that Britain is stronger, safer and better off inside the European Union and I made clear the referendum was about this and this alone – not the future of any single politician including myself.

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“But the British people have made a very clear decision to take a different path and as such I think the country requires fresh leadership to take it in this direction.

“I will do everything I can as Prime Minister to steady the ship over the coming weeks and months but I do not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that steers our country to its next destination.”

The really odd bit is that Cameron’s resignation was arguably not the biggest story that day. For the next month, everything seemed to happen in fast forward.

During the course of July, Theresa May became Prime Minister, Andrea Leadsom rose and fell, the pound plummeted to its lowest level in 30 years, Nigel Farage resigned, Boris Johnson became Foreign Secretary, Ruth Davidson was appointed to the Queen’s Privy Council, and a significant portion of Jeremy Corbyn’s cabinet quit, with questions arising over whether the party would split in two.

Before heading to his final session in parliament as PM, Cameron released a picture of himself relaxing with Larry, the Downing Street cat. In the time since Larry arrived there in 2011 the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and UKIP have all changed their leaders.

For the last couple of years, there has been a prevailing sense that politics in Scotland has flipped upside down. Ever since the referendum on Scottish independence outside observers have viewed the rapidly changing landscape of Scottish politics with a sense of confusion, or even bemusement. Yet, to paraphrase Nigel Farage’s post-Bexit vote speech to the European Parliament: they’re not laughing now.

In retrospect, things started to get weird, on a UK level, back in September, six months after the Tories won their surprise majority and the SNP all but wiped Scottish Labour off the face of the electoral map.

The Labour leadership contest which followed Ed Miliband’s resignation had been pretty fraught since it started, with tensions arising over the decision to allow supporters to pay £3.00 to register and vote. By September, when Jeremy Corbyn had moved from fringe candidate to favourite, drawing huge crowds to watch him speak, some of the party’s biggest names had felt moved to intervene in the contest.

Peter Mandelson, Gordon Brown, even Tony Blair emerged from relative retirement to issue warnings to the Labour membership over voting for a man who was perceived to put protest before power.

As Blair put it: “The party is walking eyes shut, arms outstretched over the cliff’s edge to the jagged rocks below. This is not a moment to refrain from disturbing the serenity of the walk on the basis it causes ‘disunity’. It is a moment for a rugby tackle.”

In truth, before the contest very few people would have heard of Jeremy Corbyn, the left-wing, anti-nuclear, softly spoken backbench MP for Islington North who had rebelled against his own party 410 times between 2001 and 2010.

But still, he won. In fact, he won by a landslide, taking nearly 60 per cent of first preference votes. Burnham, who came second, received just 19 per cent. Corbyn won a far bigger mandate than Blair.

And so while commentators scratched their heads and the right of the party howled in anguish, Corbyn set out his stall as leader.

Speaking in front of another sell-out crowd, he announced: “During these amazing three months, our party has changed, we’ve grown enormously. We’ve grown enormously because of the hopes of so many ordinary people for a different Britain, a better Britain, a more equal Britain, a more decent Britain. They are fed up with the inequality, the injustice, the unnecessary poverty. All those issues that brought people in, in a spirit of hope and optimism.”

He added: “Let us be a force for change in the world, a force for humanity in the world, a force for peace in the world and a force that recognises that we cannot go on like this with grotesque levels of global inequality, with grotesque threats to our environment all around without rich and powerful governments stepping up to the plate to make sure our world becomes safer and better and that those people do not end up in poverty in refugee camps, wasting their lives away when they could be contributing to the good of all of us on this planet. We are one world, let that message go out today from this conference centre in London.”

Watching from Scotland, some of the factors driving Corbyn’s success seemed familiar. The new Labour leader had swept aside his competitors using some of the same kind of anti-establishment rhetoric that had characterised the SNP’s stunning success at the general election – held just six months before – and some predicted that Corbyn’s election would boost the party north of the border.

Scotland was still reeling from campaign after campaign. An independence referendum had been rapidly followed by a general election, and with the country then heading straight into a Scottish Parliament election in May, some, surely, were experiencing campaign fatigue.

In the event, the Holyrood election campaign was a fairly straightforward affair. The SNP had been consistently sitting at around 50 per cent in the polls for months and for most the question was whether Nicola Sturgeon would be able to repeat Alex Salmond’s surprise majority, won back in 2011.

In fact, it was this dominance that set the tone for the other parties too, with the Scottish Tories and the Scottish Greens in particular shaping their campaign rhetoric around the assumption that the SNP would win big in May.

The message at the Green conference was pretty clear – vote Green and push the SNP beyond its comfort zone on issues like land reform and progressive taxation. For the Tories, the message was even simpler. With the party running on its opposition to the SNP and another referendum, they made a pledge not to increase taxation, and emphasised that Ruth Davidson would be personally more effective at holding Nicola Sturgeon to account than Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale.

Again, the widespread assumption of an SNP win continued to dominate. Even at the Tory conference David Cameron went as far as warning Scotland was at risk of turning into a “one-party state”.

Attacking the “absurd” named person scheme – a policy critics had long warned had suffered from a lack of scrutiny in an SNP-dominated Parliament – Cameron said: “I’ll tell you who needs a guardian – someone to keep them in check – it’s the SNP.

“And it falls to us, the Conservatives, the only party fit to expose these spendthrift, out-of-touch, dogmatic, inept Nationalists for what they really are.”

These harsh lines from the PM were softened by Davidson’s traditional love of ludicrous photo opportunities, and things probably reached a new level of bizarre in Scottish politics the day images emerged of the Scottish Tory leader riding on top of a buffalo, even if the stunt was overshadowed by a viral video of Scottish Lib Dem leader Willie Rennie talking about his attempts to represent his party pictorially, while standing in front of two pigs having sex.

Whatever the reasons, and despite Rennie’s best, if accidental, attempts at grabbing the headlines, the outcome of the election was more or less as expected.

The SNP received 46.5 per cent of the constituency vote, winning 59 seats, along with 41.7 per cent of the list vote, which brought it another four MSPs. The party’s share of the vote increased by 1.1 per cent in the constituency vote (against 2011), but declined by 2.3 per cent in its regional vote share.

The real surprise came elsewhere, with the Tories seeming to shed off some of the party’s traditionally toxic reputation and win a surge in support, taking 22 per cent of the constituency vote and seven constituency MSPs, along with 22.9 per cent of the regional vote, brought them another 24 seats. Their constituency vote went up 8.1 per cent, and the regional vote rose by 10.6 per cent.

The success came at the expense of Labour, which had a disastrous night – winning 22.6 per cent of the constituency vote but taking just three constituency seats, along with 19.1 per cent of the list vote, which brought 21 MSPs. The Labour constituency vote fell by 9.2 per cent, and its regional vote dropped 7.2 per cent.

The Greens won 0.6 per cent of the constituency vote and no seats, but a 2.2 per cent increase in the regional vote, taking the party up to 6.6 per cent, won the party six seats. Rennie, meanwhile, pulled off a surprise win in North East Fife, with the party also taking Edinburgh Western, Orkney and Shetland, plus one regional seat.

Meanwhile, in terms of women’s representation, nothing changed – with female MSPs in just 45 of the 129 seats, or just under 35 per cent.

Nicola Sturgeon appeared outside Bute House, her official residence, the day after the vote.

Speaking in front of the media, the First Minister talked about having won “a clear and unequivocal mandate”, setting out her intention to govern in the interests of the whole country. She said education was her “passion and priority”.

“To those who voted for me yesterday, thank you from the bottom of my heart,” she said, adding, “to those who did not vote for me, I promise I will never stop striving to earn your trust and support.”

The scene was remarkably similar to one of Cameron’s Downing Street press conferences, with a lectern placed outside the building and the media fenced off on the other side of the street.

And, thanks to Cameron, Scottish politics was still unable to stop and breathe. Parties across the spectrum had warned of the danger of holding the referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU so close to the Scottish election. In fact, there was less than two months between them.

This, along with higher support for the EU north of the border, meant the campaign never really seemed to take off to the same extent in Scotland as it did down south. There, the debate had been frenetic.

The Remain campaign focused on the economic benefits of the EU, while the Leave vote – or at least its Tory representatives – tried to frame the debate by issues of sovereignty.

Some of the parallels with the independence vote were uncanny, particularly the accusations of ‘project fear’ hurled at the Remain side by the leaders of the Leave campaign – a slightly rickety collection of UKIP and Tory members, led by Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Nigel Farage.

The debate seemed to become angrier and more tawdry, with things culminating in UKIP’s decision to launch a series of billboards seeking to play on voters’ fears over immigration. One ad showed a queue of refugees and the words “breaking point” emblazoned across the top, with a subheading urging voters to “take back control”. Critics said it was racist. Others pointed out how similar the image was to one used in Nazi propaganda.

Hours later, Labour MP Jo Cox was killed outside her constituency office, after being shot and stabbed. Reports from the scene described a man shouting “Britain first!” as he attacked her.

Prior to her election in May 2015, Cox had worked on humanitarian projects for Oxfam. She had spoken and campaigned passionately on behalf of the most vulnerable, with MPs from across Westminster describing her as a rising star within Labour.

As she herself put it, while making her maiden speech: “While we celebrate our diversity, what surprises me time and time again as I travel around the constituency is that we are far more united and have far more in common with each other than things that divide us.”

It was the first time an MP had been killed in over 25 years and, perhaps inevitably, some questioned whether the increasingly toxic political atmosphere had played a part. The EU referendum campaign was suspended for 24 hours, while Farage accused Cameron of cynically trying to link the MP’s death with the campaign for Brexit.

He told LBC: “I think there are Remain camp supporters out there who are using this to try to give the impression that this isolated horrific incident is somehow linked to arguments that have been made by myself or Michael Gove or anybody else in this campaign, and frankly, that is wrong.”

Whether that had been Cameron’s intent or not is unknown, but whatever his motivation, by the time the vote had been counted it became clear his side had not done enough to win.

At 52-48, the Leave camp won by the narrowest of margins, but for Cameron it was clear enough. His resignation came in the morning of the vote, kick-starting a Tory leadership election in the process.

Boris Johnson had long been viewed as a future Tory leader and so it came as something of a shock to his party when he ruled himself out of the contest after losing the support of Michael Gove, who had been widely expected to back him.

As Gove put it, shortly before announcing his own candidacy: “I have come, reluctantly, to the conclusion that Boris cannot provide the leadership or build the team for the task ahead.”

The move was odd, not least because Gove had repeatedly stated that he would be a terrible Prime Minister. Indeed, at different points over the last few years he has stated he would not want to do it, did not have the skills to do it, and on one occasion that he would be “constitutionally incapable” of doing it.

Gove had clearly had a change of heart, but he had not counted on how his supposed betrayal of Johnson would affect how he was viewed by the party’s MPs, who roundly rejected his candidacy and instead opted to select Theresa May and Andrea Leadsom as the two candidates to put in front of party members.

Till then, the media circus surrounding the contest had largely focused on Johnson and May and, faced with greater scrutiny, some questioned if Leadsom had been guilty of exaggerating her experience of the financial sector. Forced to clarify, she admitted: “I have never been a fund manager. I’ve never said I’ve been a fund manager and I have never been a fund manager.”

With criticism growing louder, Leadsom felt forced to pull out, leaving Theresa May – a woman who had had a fairly quiet referendum campaign – elected unopposed in July.

Standing in the same spot where Cameron had only recently resigned, May paid tribute to the man who had been her boss for six years. Then, after running through what she saw as his achievements on the economy – deficit reduction, increased employment and stability post financial crisis, she moved onto new ground.

Turning from the economy, May took the chance to announce her commitment to fighting “burning injustice”. Hers, she promised, would be a government devoted to tackling poverty, racism, sexism and the prevalence of elitism in modern Britain.

“The mission to make Britain a country that works for everyone means more than fighting these injustices. If you’re from an ordinary working-class family, life is much harder than many people in Westminster realise. You have a job but you don’t always have job security. You have your own home, but you worry about paying a mortgage. You can just about manage but you worry about the cost of living and getting your kids into a good school.

“If you’re one of those families, if you’re just managing, I want to address you directly. I know you’re working around the clock, I know you’re doing your best, and I know that sometimes life can be a struggle. The government I lead will be driven not by the interests of the privileged few, but by yours.”

And so it was that May won the leadership and became Prime Minister without contesting a general election. There had only been a three-week gap between Cameron’s resignation and May taking over.

In contrast, Labour had endured a year of infighting and aborted coups against Corbyn’s leadership. Discontent grew among MPs until the embattled leader lost a vote of no-confidence, and even then the parliamentary opposition to Corbyn was not enough to dislodge the party’s leader, until Owen Smith came forward to challenge him. Most constituency PLPs backed Corbyn, yet senior figures – including the Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale – lined up to lend support to Smith.

And so it was no longer just Scotland living through interesting times, even if the constitution continued to dominate debate.

May had used her first speech as PM to stress the unionist part of her party’s title, adding: “It means we believe in the Union: the precious, precious bond between England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.”

Within days of her election she came to Scotland for a meeting with Sturgeon. It was the first time in British history two women had met as heads of the UK and Scottish Governments and the discussion would have held huge significance even if it had not followed the Brexit vote.

While Cameron had reacted to the Brexit vote with his resignation and the Leave campaign had seemed to go missing amid the chaos, Sturgeon had responded to the result – with Scotland voting 62-38 to Remain – by holding her own press conference. Speaking in Bute House, the FM assured EU migrants living in Scotland they were welcome, and pledged to do all she could to preserve Scotland’s relationship with the EU.

More significantly, though, Sturgeon also outlined plans to legislate for a second vote on Scottish independence.

She said: “As things stand, Scotland faces the prospect of being taken out of the EU against her will. I regard that as democratically unacceptable.” She added: “I think an independence referendum is now highly likely.”

Coming out of their meeting, May seemed to offer a conciliatory approach, saying: “I have already said that I won’t be triggering Article 50 until I think that we have a UK approach and objectives for negotiations. I think it is important that we establish that before we trigger Article 50.”

Regardless, though, May will trigger Article 50 at some point and how that affects demands for a second referendum on Scottish independence – given the change in circumstances since 2014 – remains unclear. It seems political normality will not return any time soon.

Yet in some ways we are back where we started. Labour is facing another leadership contest, a year on from its last one, and Corbyn looks set to win on the back of a groundswell of support among the party’s membership.

Theresa May, politically close to David Cameron, is the Prime Minister. The SNP, meanwhile, sits high in the polls, while continuing to moot the possibility of a second independence referendum.

Whatever happens, there are bound to be more Downing Street and Bute House press conferences to come.