US Election: The contest between Trump and Harris will be won and lost in seven swing states

Every four years, the US presidential election begins to hit its stride as summer gives way to autumn. The national conventions in July and August give Democrats and Republicans a chance to energise their core supporters, but most voters do not really tune in to the contest until after Labor Day, which this year fell on 2 September. Right now, it is time for the campaigns to really get moving.

Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump, their vice-presidential nominees, and surrogates are already jet-setting across the country, with entourages of aides and press in tow. Volunteers have started knocking on doors and phone-banking out of tiny storefront campaign offices. The airwaves are awash with TV ads, mostly framing the other guy in sinister tones. It is a rambunctious, exciting, and trying time.

Nevertheless, the dynamics of the race are mostly set by the time the nine-week final straight curves into view. Even though the 2024 presidential campaign has had more than its fair share of upheaval, the fundamentals of the contest were well-established by the time Harris replaced President Joe Biden as the Democratic Party’s nominee. For both candidates, the contest was always going to be decided in a few select ‘swing states’.

The reason for this is the Electoral College, which apportions electoral votes to each candidate based on which states they win. Like so many controversial aspects of American democracy, it is a product of compromises negotiated in the 18^th and 19^th centuries. In essence, this system seeks to both acknowledge the power of larger, more populous states and protect the rights of smaller ones. More recently, its original sin of empowering the racist system of the antebellum South, where Black slaves were denied citizenship but partially counted as part of the population, has become more readily acknowledged.

The number of electoral votes allocated to each state is calculated by the number of senate seats, every state has two, plus the number of congressional districts, which are determined by relative population. For example, Virginia has two senators and eleven congressional districts, giving it thirteen electoral votes. Wyoming, the least populous state at just over half-a-million residents, has three electoral votes, based on its two senators and one at-large congressional district; California, the most populous state at nearly 39 million residents, has 54 electoral votes. A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win.

In most places, the candidate who wins the most votes is allocated all that state’s electoral votes. British voters will be familiar with this first-past-the-post arrangement. Political prognosticators can predict the political alignment of many states before votes are cast: Democrats are certain to win in true-blue New York and Hawaii, while Republicans will triumph easily in deep-red Alabama and Idaho. In between, there are a few swing states, which could go either way.

In 2024, there are seven likely swing states: the rust-belt trio of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin; Georgia and North Carolina representing the ‘New South’; and the Sun Belt pairing of Arizona and Nevada. Both campaigns will spend the bulk of their time and resources here to turn out their respective bases and convince persuadable independents.

Polling averages show Harris with a hold on 226 electoral votes, Trump with 219, and 93 up for grabs in the seven swing states. Neither campaign needs to win them all to get to 270, indeed there are multiple pathways for each ticket. However, they will prioritise certain states over others based on the number of electoral votes and their likely chances of winning.

Take Pennsylvania, for example. Located about halfway up the east coast, the ‘Keystone State’ has been a must-win for both parties for several cycles. Its nineteen electoral votes are involved in more than half of the possible ways that Harris can get to 270 and two-thirds of Trump’s routes to victory. Democrats dominate the major metropolitan areas around Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. They will try to run up the score there and win comfortably in the suburbs to offset the Republicans’ advantage in the rural counties in the central part of the state. Michigan, Georgia, and North Carolina share this urban-suburban-rural dynamic. The shrinking size of Detroit and the rising influence of the Atlanta and Charlotte metro areas define the long-term electoral prospects of each state.

Demographic considerations also play a major role. Biden was struggling to shore up support among Black voters in places like Georgia, but they are showing a renewed enthusiasm now that Harris is at the top of the ticket. An urgent question in Michigan is whether the Biden administration’s steadfast support for Israel will motivate Arab voters in key towns like Dearborn to stay home on election day. Latinos will play an outsize role in Arizona and Nevada. Meanwhile, Trump holds an advantage among white voters overall and men.

That said, the contest between Harris and Trump is wide-open. Polls show that both are in with a chance, although Harris has a slight advantage. She currently leads on average in national polling and in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which is a combination that will put her into the Oval Office. Right now, Trump must win all three of Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina to return to the White House.

The Electoral College is the pitch on which the presidential election is played, but the game day squad is also important. In the spring, American voters were anticipating a slog of a campaign between two unpopular, old, white men. Despite a strong economic record, Biden was struggling to maintain a lead. Not even the magic powers of incumbency seemed enough to overcome the malaise that gripped the party base. Every slip unleashed a barrage of questions about his age. A second Trump term appeared increasingly likely.

Biden’s decision to step aside and endorse his vice president changed the calculus. It energised Democrats, who enthusiastically embraced Harris, turning her overnight into a cultural force. If elected, she would be the first women to serve as US president, as well as the first Black woman and first Asian-American. Within days, it was suddenly all joy and coconut trees, vibes and brat summer. Her savvy pick of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, a high school football coach and veteran, gave the party a heartland talisman. Both seem to inhabit the ‘happy warrior’ ideal so prized in American politics.

Harris’ rise turned the tables on Trump, now framed as a doddering malcontent. The bump he got after surviving an assassination attempt proved temporary. It remains to be seen whether another alleged assassination plot will impact the polls. The Republicans wasted their convention focusing on Biden, who timed his exit from the race well, and are struggling to land punches on Harris. Senator JD Vance looks to be a historically unpopular vice-presidential choice. His obvious sexism and awkwardness on the campaign trail are taking on lives of their own as memes.

Harris is on the upswing, but there is still plenty of time for the race to shift. Polls can change and do not provide the whole picture. While it was generally accepted that Harris won the televised debate between the two candidates and has given her a boost of momentum, it’s unlikely to prove as consequential as the one on June 27 that mortally wounded Biden.

Through it all, watch the seven swing states. The campaign will be won or lost there.