Trading places: Trump's tariffs give Starmer an opportunity to draw closer to the EU

First things first, Britain is not likely to re-join the European Union any time soon. Nearly a decade on from an era-defining act of self-sabotage, the politics continue to be, well, tricky. While a recent YouGov poll found a majority of respondents (55 per cent) now think Brexit was a mistake, the sentiment is more keenly felt among Labour and Lib Dem voters. Of those who voted Reform at the general election, 80 per cent still think leaving the EU was the right call and 60 per cent of Tory voters agree.

For a development of such historic significance, the UK’s decision to leave the EU rarely features in our day-to-day political discourse. Given the fractious and drawn-out uncoupling which followed the 2016 vote, it’s perhaps unsurprising there’s no desire for that time to be revisited. The continued strong showing for Reform in opinion polls is no doubt another reason why Labour remains afraid of mentioning the B-word. But while there are arguably good political reasons for avoiding talk of that which will not be named, it’s delusional to ignore its economic impact, especially for a government which, according to Keir Starmer, is “obsessed” with growth.

In the six years following the referendum, there was a near-40 per cent fall in foreign direct investment as multinationals moved their operations to the EU to maintain access to the single market. According to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, a think tank, the regulatory and administrative burdens placed on UK exporters reduced trade and helped extend the sluggish growth experienced since the 2008 financial crisis. While all of Europe was affected by the inflationary shock caused by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, the cost of goods rose more steeply and continue to be higher in the UK. The evidence is clear – Brexit has hobbled our economy and worsened the cost-of-living crisis, making us all poorer. 

So meagre have the Brexit benefits been, the absolute slimmest of pickings, that those who voted Leave now seize on the smallest of ‘wins’ as evidence we didn’t make the most calamitous balls-up nearly a decade ago. The latest of these was the news that US President Donald Trump had hit the UK with a 10 per cent trade tariff – half that of the EU. Amid turmoil on the bond markets, the introduction of the import levies was subsequently suspended, followed by Vice President JD Vance talking up the potential of a UK-US trade deal, something which may or may not come to pass. 

But while there are arguably good political reasons for avoiding talk of that which will not be named, it’s delusional to ignore its economic impact, especially for a government which, according to Keir Starmer, is 'obsessed' with growth.

The Brexiteers are right about one thing – there is an opportunity from Trump’s new world order, it’s just not the one they think. Nearly a decade on from the vote to leave, now is our opportunity to once again pull closer to the EU, to rejoin the customs union and perhaps, in time, even the single market. Any Labour qualms should be eased by a poll commissioned by the Best for Britain think tank which found a majority of voters want the government to re-establish closer links with our nearest neighbours. Fifty-three per cent of those polled believed a closer relationship with the EU would have a positive impact on the UK economy, compared to just 13 per cent who thought the opposite.

Starmer is correct in his judgement that we have entered a new era. It’s one where the US president blames his predecessor and Ukraine for a war started by Russia; where he attempts to shackle the academic freedom of American universities; and where he openly muses about the extraordinary rendition of US citizens to a notorious super prison in El Salvador. Churchill’s ‘special relationship’ increasingly looks to be predicated more on realpolitik than any shared values. While the economic case for establishing closer links with the EU is sound, the political and moral arguments look ever more compelling.