The Lottery election

Serendipitously coinciding with polls showing the UK's three-party system may already be finished, this week the Electoral Reform Society (ERS) publishes a new report called ‘The Lottery Election’ which highlights the consequences of a multi-party reality in an electoral system designed for only two parties.

The group’s Scotland director, Willie Sullivan, says first past the post is a steam-age system in a digital age. “First past the post is a system of the past, from when we had two big blocks – two coalitions of sets of interests, one in the interests of propertied upper middle class capital, and one in the interests of labour. Well, those days are gone,” he says.

Society itself has changed, argues Sullivan. “People are not either in one block or the other block, they don’t want to be shoe-horned into either being a Tory or Labour. They want a little bit more diversity than that. They have access to much more information, they can question things that are put to them a lot more,” he argues. To the ERS, coalition government is a “more modern way of doing politics” because “people can see the coalition being formed” rather than behind the closed doors of the two main parties.

As revealed by Holyrood this week, Professor Richard Rose predicts David Cameron will be PM of a weakened government on 8 May. If it happens, the case for reform will be unanswerable, says Sullivan.

“The advocates of first past the post are not going to be able to say this delivers strong government anymore. It looks like we’ll have coalitions from here on in,” he says.

"It looks like we’ll have coalitions from here on in"

Alan Convery, a lecturer in politics at the University of Edinburgh who specialises in the political parties for the Centre on Constitutional Change, believes even the Conservatives will be forced to consider a more proportional electoral system. Daily Mail columnist Peter Hitchens predicted in 1997 the Conservatives would never again win an overall majority, Convery points out, suggesting some within the party may start to come to the same conclusion and rethink their statecraft strategy.

“The party is prepared to accept first past the post is unfair to them in the north of England and is biased against them in many parts of the UK, and really badly in Scotland, on the basis it holds out the prospect of a majority Conservative government. As soon as the Conservative Party concludes there will never again be a majority government then it has to start thinking strategically long term, like is this the electoral system we want, and are the trade-offs worth it now?” he suggests.

The referendum on independence has brought increased focus on the constitution across the UK too. David Cameron raised the prospect of ‘English votes for English laws’ in the immediate aftermath, and more recently, Chancellor George Osborne has suggested Scottish MPs be excluded from voting on some parts of the budget. Convery says the talk is premature. “The problem is we haven’t quite delineated what is a ‘federal’ level of a budget, and what affects England only, and that has become a problem. It’s the British and the English government together, and Whitehall doesn’t make a distinction, the Treasury doesn’t make a distinction between English policy and British policy. It’s very difficult.” he says. The Labour Party have talked about regional representation in a reformed upper house.

Willie Sullivan says the ERS will be campaigning for wider reform. “When this election looks like a lottery, they’re going to have to seriously look at reform. What we’re advocating is a constitutional convention for the whole of the UK, to look at anachronisms and anomalies. Looking at it piecemeal is difficult. Also to involve citizens’ representatives in it, a cross section working with the politicians to look at the House of Lords, the devolution settlement, who gets to vote on Scottish or English matters, then have a look at how politicians are elected as well.”

Although he predicts turnout will be up in Scotland because of the SNP’s membership surge, Sullivan says many Yes voters didn’t necessarily identify with the party, and are unlikely to return to the ballot box in May.

“Elections should have some rational connection between the amount of votes cast and the representation there is in parliament. If they don’t then we’re as well running a lottery on it. If there’s not a connection between votes and seats, then drawing lots would be just as good. Probably better, actually”.