Scottish Conservatives eye up a change of direction as election proves voters are bored of constitution

In many ways, the SNP and Conservatives faced the same problem as the general election approached last week.

Both had government records to defend amid declining standards in public services and rising cost-of-living. Both have had their fair share of scandal involving elected representatives. And both, in Scotland at least, fought the campaign with a message that didn’t seem all that relevant to voters.

For the last decade, the two parties have surfed on post-indyref waves. While the SNP enjoyed a reputation of being the party that stands up for Scotland, even among voters that were not necessarily all that enthusiastic about independence, the Tories enjoyed a boost in support from arch pro-Unionists. Their elevation to second largest party in Scotland in 2016, and retaining it in 2021, is absolutely because the message they took to voters was back them, or risk breaking up the UK.

But that message created problems this year when that issue had all but fallen off the agenda. The party was not nimble enough to pivot and change its message.

Their message was entirely focused on defeating the SNP and attacking their 'obsession' with independence

Even the SNP – despite having independence page one, line one – didn’t often mention the issue. John Swinney recognised that independence could not be his party’s central offering and that’s why he made an effort to link the constitution to more substantive issues like the economy and the NHS. That message did not land and it left the SNP without a clear message. It suffered for that, but at least there was an attempt to adjust to the new reality.

The Scottish Conservatives did not. Their message was entirely focused on defeating the SNP and attacking their “obsession” with independence. And while the party may have held its ground in those north-east and border seats (Douglas Ross was the only loser of the night, which can largely be blamed on how he became the candidate for that seat), that was only because the SNP vote fell by more.

Nationally, the Conservatives secured just 13 per cent – down from a quarter of votes in 2019. And while some have been quick to blame the rise of Reform, that is simply (to borrow a term) Fake News north of the border. Reform only won 3.8 per cent of the Scottish vote, compared to 14.3 per cent UK-wide.

So as the party begins to think about 2026, it will need to seriously reconsider its message to voters. And there are few better times to do that than a leadership election.

Interestingly there does seem to be a growing consensus among the party’s MSPs that their pro-Union message has been exhausted.

The party must look to changing its message or risk a severe depletion of its ranks come 2026

North-east MSP Maurice Golden has long been of the view that the party has spent too long focused on the constitution. In light of the election, that view has only hardened. He told the P&J: “Independence is very much off the table in my view. I don’t think it’s a credible core message for Holyrood 2026.”

Golden has not said either way yet whether he will run in the leadership race triggered by the unprecedented mid-campaign resignation of Ross, but he is considering it. As one of the party’s more centrist MSPs, though, his bid would be considered a long shot (not to mention the awkward position that could put the party in as UK-wide the Conservatives seem to be gearing up to elect a leader from its right wing).

One name that has repeatedly been touted as a future leader in Russell Findlay. The West of Scotland MSP has made a name for himself as a tough and articulate justice spokesman. And writing in the Daily Mail on Thursday, in a column that does look a bit like the soft-launch of a campaign, he said this was a chance for a “fresh start in Scotland”.

“I think the simple truth is that over recent years the Scottish Conservatives have focused too much on what we are opposed to,” he continued, “and spent not nearly enough time setting out the positive case for a modern, popular conservatism. That must change.”

He went on to say that while putting opposition to independence at the forefront of the campaign for the last decade was “by necessity”, the party must not “be defined by policies which reflect our values and the positive change we want to bring”. “People know we’re Unionists. They need to find out why we’ve Conservatives,” he added.

Murdo Fraser, who stood for leadership back in 2011 but was beaten by Ruth Davidson, is also thought to be considering putting his name forward. He will likely run on the platform of needing to create a separate identity from the UK Conservative Party, as he did 13 years ago.

That might have more oomph now than it did then partly because of the scandal that has enveloped the party in Westminster in recent years. It is also partly based in the idea that Scots lean more to the left than English voters and therefore won’t back a party that is run by a ring-wing leader at UK level. His vision of conservatism may have more of a Davidson than Ross tinge.

Of course, all this is happening at the same time as the UK party is considering its own future. How much of an impact that contest will have on this one remains to be seen, but either way it is clear the party must look to changing its message or risk a severe depletion of its ranks come 2026.

The party will confirm the process for electing new leaders at both levels in the coming days. There has been some debate about the speed at which that should happen. MSP Stephen Kerr, writing in The Telegraph, said it should not be rushed. “There is no need to bounce the party into a quick coronation in time for the start of the new parliamentary session at Holyrood in September,” he said. “It would be entirely counterproductive when the leadership contest itself presents us with an opportunity to discuss the future of our party in a way we haven’t in more than a decade.”

So, whatever the eventual outcome, prepare for a robust exchange of ideas as the Scottish Conservatives consider what kind of party it should be in the post-post-referendum era.