Labour needs to make the next election a referendum on John Swinney

The infectious enthusiasm of Anas Sarwar that was supposed to carry him into Bute House has an antidote, it seems. Large doses of Keir Starmer appear to have rendered most Scots immune to the Scottish Labour leader’s charms.

If polls are to be believed, far from a glorious victory next May, Sarwar is heading to his party’s worst defeat in the history of devolution.

Will that finally take the spring out of Sarwar’s inner Tigger? It shouldn’t. He can still win if he is bold and turns one of the UK Labour leader’s catchphrases into his own reality and puts country first, party second.

The stakes are much higher next May than just a test of the prime minister’s popularity north of the border.

The next general election may be too far out for polling to predict the final result, but each one so far has indicated a further fracturing of the vote and a hung parliament at Westminster, with the SNP potentially key to deciding who governs. If that is combined with a pro-independence majority at Holyrood, we could fall back into constitutional crisis and referendum territory.

Sarwar has the first chance to avert that possibility but his strategy will have to be ruthless.

The vague ‘change’ message which won him 37 seats last July won’t work again. People don’t like the changes they have seen so far and with Chancellor Rachel Reeves likely to have to impose cuts and possibly tax rises in the next twelve months, Labour’s unpopularity will deepen.

That will also be against a backdrop of Britain and its relevance on the world stage being redefined by how Starmer responds to the bullying of Donald Trump.

The SNP will seek to make the election a referendum on Starmer. Sarwar has to make it a referendum on John Swinney, and he should be brutal.

The SNP has been in power for almost 20 years. In that time its first-ever first minister was charged with the gravest of sexual offences, found guilty of none and went to his grave convinced there had been a conspiracy where the Scottish state tried to jail a political opponent. Alex Salmond had a case and Scottish Labour should pursue it.

His successor, Nicola Sturgeon, suddenly resigned just before Police Scotland pitched a tent in her front garden as they looked for evidence of a missing £600,000.

Humza Yousaf was stitched up to succeed her and was hopeless.

And one common thread running through them all – John Swinney. What was his part in the Salmond scandal? Is it right that he regularly speaks to Sturgeon while the Crown office decides if she should be charged and while the Lord Advocate sits in his cabinet?
We may have got used to these scandals, but Sarwar has to make people realise that the frog is really boiling now.

Swinney has three flaws which the Labour leader should exploit. He is quick to anger, as exciting as watching lard melt in a cold room, and he is crippled by caution. That’s where Scottish Labour’s policy offering has to be radical and something the SNP would never match. 

The SNP will seek to make the election a referendum on Starmer. Sarwar has to make it a referendum on John Swinney, and he should be brutal.

Sarwar’s new direction has to have real substance. He has flirted with calling for new nuclear power generation; now he should come up with a concrete plan to build new reactors in Scotland and put flesh on the bones of GB Energy. That means not just outlining where the new green jobs will come from, but he should be the saviour of the North Sea, calling for greater tax relief for operators from the chancellor and the granting of new licences as the just transition is made. It would be bold and put clear red water between him and both Swinney and, crucially, Starmer.

If Sarwar is to turn this around, he must be seen as his own man standing up for Scotland – even if that means he stands up to his colleagues in the Westminster leadership.
Nothing should be off the table and the contrast with the cautious conservatism of Swinney should be stark.

Concrete pledges on how AI will be used in the NHS in the next five years to improve services. An emergency plan to restore order to our classrooms and reverse the decline in standards which Swinney started as education secretary which means that standards are higher in England for the first time.

Scotland voted to stay in both the UK and the EU. Scottish Labour should consider whether or not there is a case for trying to keep truer to both votes by adopting here the Windsor Agreement which Northern Ireland enjoys. It is the kind of thing a real national leader would consider and would be a dividing line with Reform UK and probably the Tories.

Swinney carries himself with the chill of an undertaker rather than the swagger of a national leader. Sarwar has the charm but now needs to show the imagination and the policy substance that can properly fill the suit of first minister. 

As leader of the SNP, Swinney has only ever bled support. It would appear that he only came out of retirement to block Kate Forbes from the leadership and to hold the fort until Stephen Flynn gets a Holyrood seat. The divisions are there in the SNP for Sarwar to exploit.

Anas Sarwar’s infectious enthusiasm and boyish grin should not be lost. But if he is going to avoid another slapping from a scunnered Scottish electorate, he needs to be prepared to turn this election campaign into a real scrap and then offer a distinctive vision of Scotland which shows him to be Scotland’s man in Labour and not the other way around. Country first, party second, as someone once said.