What Labour could learn from Donald Trump

Here we are again. Four years after the US seemed to have come to its senses, President Donald Trump is set to return to the White House.

And not only did Trump win, but the Republicans took control of the Senate and are within touching distance of controlling of the House, meaning the party can more or less do what it likes. Needless to say, this election will have consequences far wider than just the US.

But I want to focus on the lessons for Labour here in the UK. There is wisdom to be gleaned from both the Republicans’ victory and the Democrats’ defeat.

Part of the Democrats’ problem is that the party has been unable to convince people that they’ve used the last four years well. Economic growth might be up, but voters don’t care about the capital-e ‘Economy’ – they care about how that impacts their daily lives. Telling them things are getting better means nothing when there is no tangible difference in their pockets.

The Conservatives lost because voters wanted change. The pendulum could easily swing back in

Labour should take note. “Fixing the foundations” to create long-term stability is all well and good, but if people can’t feel improvements quickly, it won’t get very far with its long-term plan.

The party’s fall from grace in the polls proves the point. Most people haven’t yet seen the change that was promised. The constant refrain from government is that it cannot fix everything all at once, but there are easy and early wins that would have proven it is ready to deliver. Scrapping the two-child benefit cap, for example, would have shown the party means business on poverty.

This isn’t to say Trump won because he will improve people’s lives. Rather, when the choice on the ballot is between ‘more of the same’ or ‘something different’, the electorate will always back change. That is how politics works in a two-party system.

This summer, the Conservatives lost because – as Labour rightly surmised – voters wanted change. The pendulum could easily swing back in five years’ time for the exact same reason.

In addition, Labour is unlikely to be up against such an unlikeable opponent in the next election. Rishi Sunak was plagued by the general feeling that he was out of touch with the public, and also marred by the actions of his two predecessors. Keir Starmer just had to appear the better man. Against Kemi Badenoch he might struggle.

Some people may wish to point to Trump’s election as proof that personality doesn’t matter. But to many Americans, he’s charismatic and likable and, crucially, able to speak their language. That’s a matter of narrative and the Republicans have done remarkably well in rebranding itself as a party of working people.

The same could be said for Nigel Farage and Reform. Indeed, the right-wing in this country have long done a better job at telling a story than the left. They appeal to people’s emotions, regardless of any specific fact or policy detail, and a general feeling that things could be better.

The crunch point will come for Scottish Labour earlier than it will for UK Labour. If Anas Sarwar has any hope of victory in 2026, he’ll need to prove his party will actually, tangibly and provably, improve the lives of Scots. That will be made all the harder if the Labour Government doesn’t start delivering what it promised.