Interesting times ahead for all parties in the Scottish Parliament

It was a result that mixed predictability, surprise and the promise of a more politically diverse parliament than had been expected.

Although the headlines since last Thursday night have rightly been dominated by the Conservative revival and capture of second place from Labour, the predictions of a clear SNP victory were borne out.

The good news for the party is that it increased its share of the constituency vote, becoming the first party ever to poll over one million votes in a Holyrood election in the process, and won a comfortable victory which ensures a third consecutive Nationalist government.

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So, why does the result feel like a disappointment for the SNP?

It’s because the expectations before the vote were so high that anything other than a second overall majority would feel like a let-down.

Although polling does not attempt to distribute seats from estimating national vote share, most of us assumed that an increase in SNP vote share in the constituency vote would most likely produce the same overall majority result as 2011.

But a number of surprise local results meant that this did not happen and the constituencies did not change to yellow in the same way that they had done in last year’s general election.

Instead, it is the Conservatives who have most to celebrate, surpassing the expectations that they had set.

The polls towards the end of the campaign had suggested that they had a good chance of overtaking Labour, but the securing of 31 seats surpassed even the most bullish expectations.

It is clear that their strategy of relentlessly promoting leader Ruth Davidson, alongside staunch opposition to a second independence referendum and effective opposition in Holyrood, paid dividends.

National polling had shown the Tories edging ahead of Labour in the regional ballot, so that was less of a surprise than the fact that the party picked up an impressive seven constituency seats.

Indeed, at times during the count it felt like a series of local election results being announced rather than a national event, such was the unpredictability in some areas.

From the Tories picking up Eastwood, Edinburgh Central and Aberdeenshire West, to Labour winning Edinburgh Southern and hanging on in Dumbarton and East Lothian, and the Liberal Democrat triumphs in North East Fife and Edinburgh Western, it was this diverse series of surprises that deprived the SNP of their overall majority.

For Labour these few local triumphs could not mask another dreadful performance.

The fall to third place may have been increasingly predicted by polls as the campaign progressed, but it will still be a huge blow to the party.

Worse, there is a clear pattern emerging of Labour support in Scotland falling since the late 1990s.

And while the independence referendum signalled an exodus of support to the SNP, this latest collapse may include some loss of support to the Conservatives.

The worry for Labour will be that it takes as long for them to recover as it has taken for the Tories to emerge from the wilderness.

The explanation of Labour’s performance will take some time to understand but may well lie in its stance on the constitutional issue.

In an era when this issue appears to be the main driver of voting intentions, the clarity of the Conservative position resonated with voters as clearly as Labour’s ambiguity appears to have turned them off.

In a campaign dominated by the personalities of the party leaders, it was interesting to see Liberal Democrat leader Willie Rennie, like his Conservative counterpart Ruth Davidson, win his own individual constituency battle.

But what the Liberal Democrats won on the swings, with Rennie and the impressive victory in Edinburgh Western, they lost on the roundabouts with fewer regional victories, meaning they still have five MSPs in total.

The Scottish Greens will be delighted to treble their representation in Holyrood from two to six.

This becomes an even more important factor since they have overtaken the Liberal Democrats to be the fourth biggest party, and because it is their seats that ensure there is still a pro-independence majority in parliament.

So, what next? For the SNP life gets a little more difficult as it must cooperate, negotiate and compromise with parties who will have the type of influence they have not been used to for many years.

In the unlikely event that the SNP does want to push for a second independence referendum in the next five years, it may be tougher to do so, although with the parliament having six Green MSPs, not impossible.

There will be much focus on how the Conservatives and the Greens use their increased leverage in the key policy battlegrounds and how successful they will be in influencing SNP plans.

But the SNP’s experience of heading a successful minority administration between 2007 and 2011 will give them confidence that it can happen again.

For Labour, another period of soul-searching beckons.

Unlike the aftermath of the independence referendum and the 2015 general election, the party at least has a significant period of time before the next major national electoral test; whether they use it to make decisions which will improve their public appeal remains to be seen.

Interesting times lie ahead.