Ian Blackford: The SNP has no divine right to govern, we must show we are worthy of trust

For the SNP, a party that experienced a remarkable and consistent level of electoral success over the last decade and more, the sharp reversal in support at the UK general election acts as a significant wake up to John Swinney, our party and government.

Falling from 45 per cent of the vote share in the last UK election in 2019 to 30 per cent this year shows that a sizeable percentage of the electorate were not prepared to put their trust in the SNP. We have to listen to this, to reflect and to lead.

Time is of the essence as, make no mistake, the starting gun has now been fired on the 2026 Scottish election campaign. In short, we need to show that we are worthy of the trust of those who could not or would not support the SNP at the UK election. Frankly, if we do not do so we risk defeat in 2026.

The physical vote share decline is stark, but the physical numbers of those who declined to vote SNP is even more stark. In 2019, 1,242,380 voters put their faith in the SNP. In 2024, it was just 724,758 – a decline of over 517,000.

I have no doubt that John Swinney will reflect very carefully and in detail as to why voters either went elsewhere or simply declined to vote. The SNP must work to deserve the right to win the 2026 election by managing effectively our public services and showing that we have the vision to deliver on our reason for being in the long-term – a vision of an independent more prosperous, greener and fairer Scotland.

Not independence as an abstract concept but a clear vision that demonstrates that life will be better. It is stating the obvious that any party and government must show it is on the side of the electorate and their priorities. Trust and competence are key.

The cost-of-living crisis, the effects of inflation and the squeeze on budgets are all taking their toll on individuals, on families and businesses. Ok, it is often argued that much of this is made in Westminster. That much is true. However in Holyrood the buck stops with us. We have a responsibility to lead through the cost-of-living crisis.

There is a level of disenchantment amongst the public over our public services, notably with our NHS. We can talk about better outcomes compared to elsewhere in the UK but that is of cold comfort when waiting lists are too high, when constituents can’t access GP appointments and in many cases, access to dental care is a challenge.

We have to show we can improve outcomes, to enhance the experiences of the public and we have to do it quickly. We will be judged on this in 2026.

I understand the fiscal challenges the Scottish Government faces. In large part this is a function of the lack of sustainable economic growth in the UK, a lack of investment in our green transition which in turn is so necessary to create the meaningful job opportunities that we need.

Fixing the growth agenda will deliver the tax receipts to invest in our public services improving the life chances of our people. Setting out a realistic programme for growth will not only deliver results in the short-term but underpin the vision that with the powers of independence we could do even better.

Much is said about the green transition and the opportunities for Scotland. There is the potential not just for growth but for a green industrial revolution, driving investment, improving productivity, achieving a competitive advantage and transforming the Scottish economy. It will not happen by itself – we have to create the architecture and circumstances that will make this happen.

In the 1970s, Scotland benefitted from the North Sea oil boom but we were left in the slow lane compared to the likes of Norway who not only turbo-charged the opportunities for income streams out of this vital asset, but they dominated the supply chains and shared in an economic bounty. We missed out to full extent we should have done due to a lack of strategic oversight. We cannot allow this to happen again.

In a report from the renowned economist Dr David Skilling produced for the SNP in 2022, David estimated that by 2050 Scotland could increase its green energy output from a then 12GW to 80GW, a fivefold increase, and lead to the delivery of 325,000 jobs.

The sheer scale of this opportunity dwarfs the amount of jobs we have today from oil and gas.

We have the opportunity of being a green energy powerhouse supplying energy to the rest of the UK and Europe, but crucially creating a green industrial opportunity from being able to deliver a cost-effective energy source for industrial development here in Scotland.

Last year, together with Sir Martin Donnelly and Professor Dominic Houlder, I published a paper on behalf of the SNP setting put a roadmap for a Scottish Green Industrial Strategy. The need for an effective strategy is stark. Carrying on as we have been doing will not cut it.

As I pointed out in the paper, in a book called Scotland’s Populations written by Michael Anderson he showed that in every single decade, Scotland’s relative population in the UK declined. The reasons for this will be multi-faceted but there is no doubt that lack of economic growth is a critical factor.

That is why we concluded that change in oversight and engagement was necessary and why we specifically recommended the establishment of an industrial council reporting to and to be chaired by the first minister. This has to be an outward looking body incorporating industrialists, financiers and academics amongst others.

If we are to face down and deliver on all of the challenges we face in public service delivery then we need to deliver economic growth and as a consequence of this success the tax receipts for public investment.

I wish my friend and colleague John Swinney every success as he charts a course for the SNP government. If I may be so bold, I would encourage the first minister to green light the industrial council.

I know John has what it takes to reflect on the lessons from the general election, to demonstrate that the Scottish Government understands the people’s priorities. To recognise we have no divine right to govern, we must demonstrate that we are worthy of trust.

That we must deal with the challenges today in our public services but crucially we can be depended upon to create the circumstances and architecture for sustainable economic growth. We want this country to be the best it can be.

Right now, 25 years on from devolution we have to be honest and recognise we can do better. We can transform Scotland’s growth opportunities and just think about what this means from improving life chances of our citizens. That prize of a wealthier, fairer, greener Scotland. It is in our hands.