Do the Scottish Tories have more to offer than populist soundbites?

Political scientist Charles Philip Sayre once remarked that academic politics was the “most vicious and bitter form of politics, because the stakes are so low”. The same might explain the recent Scottish Tory leadership contest.

It would take more than a bucketful of Tory Kool-Aid to believe that Russell Findlay will become Scotland’s first minister. The prize that attracted a fifth of Conservative MSPs to put themselves forward is likely to be thankless, attract brickbats aplenty, and offer limited opportunities to achieve much. The Scottish Tories are riven with internal divisions and under attack from right and left.

The Tories know better than most that it is daft to dismiss Reform’s potential by pretending Scotland is more progressive than the rest of the UK. Reform’s seven per cent of the vote was poor compared with the 15.3 per cent won in England (or 16.9 per cent in Wales) in the general election but there was far less evidence of a Remain campaign in Scotland. We should expect a more active Reform campaign in two years’ time. The party may win few seats in Holyrood but could take much-needed votes from the Scottish Tories.

Appealing to Reform-inclined voters comes at a cost for the Scottish Tories. By trying to protect their right flank, the Tories are exposing their left flank. This is where the main danger lies. There is a substantial body of middle-class centrist voters who will be put off by populist messages designed to stave off defections to Reform. These are the type of voters the SNP lost four months ago and Labour is targeting.

Leadership for an opposition party with limited scope to set agendas is all about purposeful opportunism. The independence referendum created an opportunity that was enthusiastically embraced by Ruth Davidson. She was a brilliant but limited opportunist. Given the hand she was dealt, she surfed the wave of constitutional politics better than Nicola Sturgeon. Davidson had to compete with Labour and the Liberal Democrats for the unionist vote, plus she inherited the huge drag of unpopular Tory governments. Sturgeon had next to no competition on the nationalist side of the binary divide, inherited a massive base and a party with a reputation for competence. For a period, the Tories were no longer the favourite Aunt Sallys of Scottish politics.

But Davidson failed to translate the unionist surge into support for other Conservative policies. She and her colleagues criticised the Scottish Government for a range of failings at every opportunity but lacked an alternative vision. Douglas Ross’s task became more difficult as the agenda shifted away from the constitution. Voters who had lent the Tories support when constitutional politics had been dominant have returned to Labour.

Ruth Davidson would never admit it but her efforts to distance the Scottish Tories from Boris Johnson would have benefited from embracing Murdo Fraser’s thinking. Fraser was the candidate most likely to develop a broader coherent Conservative vision in 2011 and again this year, but his unionism had become suspect amongst the membership – which says much more about Scottish Conservative members than Fraser. Most Tory members have yet to come to terms with devolution. Kemi Badenoch’s election as UK leader will make life more difficult for the Scottish Tories unless they create some clear blue water with the party in Westminster. Now more than ever, the Scottish Tories need to assert themselves in relations with the party south of the border.

The Scottish Tory leadership may offer limited opportunities but that does not mean there are none. Opportunities need to be recognised and purposefully exploited. Findlay’s expertise lies in law and order. We can expect the beating of the traditional Tory law and order drum. In his first major set-piece speech, Findlay focused on the “freebie” culture and a need to reduce the “tax burden”. This might get the Tory leader onto the odd front page and perhaps limit haemorrhaging support to Reform, but it’s unlikely to have much long-term impact.

Findlay insists that the state needs to shrink but does not want to cut public services. He needs to explain how this will be done. Current levels of spending are unsustainable unless the Scottish economy grows at a much faster rate than at present. Findlay has had nothing substantial to say on the economy. We were spared the madcap economic nonsense of Liz Truss but we were also spared a serious contribution beyond Tory shibboleths – nods in favour of low tax, less regulation, a smaller state. The new Scottish Tory leader needs to get on top of economic and fiscal affairs.

Findlay’s challenges are far greater than his recent predecessors. In recent times, the Tories have hidden behind their unionism. These days they need to explain what Scottish Conservatism has to offer beyond tired populist soundbites.