Despite this being first campaign to debate parliament’s new powers, voters do not want them to be used in any radical way

It is often said that what voters in any country really want from their government is public services of Scandinavian quality with the tax rates of the United States. The current Holyrood campaign shows that this applies as much in Scotland as anywhere else.

Opposition parties welcomed the passing of the Scotland Act earlier this year, not just because Holyrood could become what the Secretary of State for Scotland described as a “powerhouse parliament” but also because it would force the SNP, as well as their own parties, to make clear tax-raising proposals to voters.

We now know how each party would use the new powers and obligations outlined in the Act. Crucially, we also have a fair idea of what the public wants and expects.

There are two big issues that voters will be looking at in the run-up to 5 May: how much tax will I be paying, and what will happen to key public services like the NHS and schools?

Polling data is clear on the tax issue: voters are quite content for the wealthiest to pay more but are reluctant to see changes, up or down, in the other rates. Indeed, when presented with options for future income tax rates, a majority of Scots (54 per cent) would prefer to see rates kept as they are rather than either raised by 1p (30 per cent) or cut by the same amount (10 per cent).

In this regard you can understand the SNP’s decision to keep the income tax rates unchanged and not risk having their significant lead in the polls challenged.

Having said that, the party seems less in tune with public opinion when it comes to increasing the top rate of income tax from 45p in the pound to 50p for those earning £150,000 per year or more.

Unsurprisingly, given the small number of taxpayers who would be affected by such a policy, this is the income tax change which would strike the loudest chord with voters if implemented. When asked to rate the different income tax policy options being put forward by parties, this measure is seen as the highest priority for the next government, achieving an average score of 7.3 out of 10, compared to 6.2 for increasing all rates by 1p in the pound and 5.3 for not implementing the rise in threshold for those paying the 40p higher rate, announced by the UK Government in its recent budget.

Though this may appear a ringing endorsement of a radical approach to income tax, it is worth noting that the option to do nothing and keep rates in Scotland identical to those in England was only marginally less of a priority at 6.5 out of 10.

It is, however, when we study voter priorities for public services that we fully appreciate the lack of appetite for fundamental change. Voters want government to continue to fund the status quo rather than change it. 

The two biggest priorities for voters ahead of 5 May are to ensure that spending on the NHS increases by at least the same rate as in England (an average score of 8.3 out of 10) and to maintain the principle of free higher education for Scottish students (average score of 8.1).

Contrast this with the average score of 5.3 for introducing prescription charges for those of working age and the message of continuity from voters gets ever louder.

And when you consider how far ahead of its rivals the SNP is in terms of who has ‘the best policies’ on the key devolved issues, it is clear to see why a proposal of continuity is likely to play well with voters, while opposition parties look for different policy solutions to try and catch the voters’ eye.

This message extends to the thorny issue of the constitution as well, with no overwhelming call for a second independence referendum, even if the UK votes to leave the European Union in June, the proposition receiving an average priority score of 5.6 out of 10.

So, amid the range of significant impacts from a Brexit in June, don’t bank on Scottish Government calls for a second independence referendum to necessarily be one of them.

It is often said that there are two types of elections: those that herald an era of significant change, demanded by voters tired of the status quo, and those where the electorate appears largely content with the government’s direction of travel and is not minded towards radical change. This election is certainly an example of the latter.

Despite the upheaval and drama of the 2014 independence referendum, we may now be entering a period of political and electoral stability in Scotland.

Mark Diffley is the director of Ipsos MORI Scotland