Associate feature: Building a resilient Scotland: Embedding long-term thinking

Over the past few years, the world has experienced an exceptional number of major geopolitical, social and economic challenges. Scotland has not been immune from the effects of these challenges which have tested our national resilience. This has also led to an understandable – perhaps unavoidable – prioritisation of our short-term needs. 

However, the long term has become urgent. Globally, we have all seen this most clearly, of course, in climate change where a scientific consensus has existed for decades, but global action has been slow and we may now be only a few years away from reaching average temperatures of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. 

But climate change is far from the only example. Many of the key public policy challenges that would most benefit from a long-term approach are national, not global, and may be opportunities, not threats. Individuals and businesses alike value the certainty that long-termism can provide, and the confidence it engenders in our institutions.  Long-term policymaking is our best route to a Scotland which is resilient to whatever the future holds. 

Earlier this month, the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) published a prospectus: ‘Building a resilient Scotland: Embedding long-term thinking’. Using insights from actuaries in Scotland, the prospectus sets out some of the ways that Scottish policymakers could apply long-term thinking to key public policy issues. Embracing the long term and taking risk-informed approaches to investing for growth and building a resilient economy for the future will support a healthy, safe and financially secure population. 

The prospectus focusses on four themes that are long-term in nature. 

It outlines some ways  to address the risks arising from the changing climate and how Scotland could benefit from the economic opportunity presented by the energy transition. These include implementing a cross-economy National Transition Plan, creating a Country Risk Officer role, and implementing the Natural Environment Bill.

Infrastructure investment drives growth and is integral to supporting the Scottish economy as it transitions to Net Zero. The prospectus urges policymakers in Scotland to harness the impact that Solvency UK will have on unlocking infrastructure investment, use public-private partnerships to help drive infrastructure investment, and identify where improvements are needed to ensure that interdependent systems are effectively utilised and protected.

At an individual level, efforts must be made to improve financial resilience in Scotland. The prospectus recommends government provides the people of Scotland with tools and guidance throughout their lives so that they can take control of their financial future with confidence. It also recommends increasing financial education in schools, and that government works with industry to develop solutions to support financial resilience.

And finally, to create a fair and resilient social care system, the prospectus urges government to raise public awareness to combat the perception that all care is free, and to formulate policy so that personal and state provision can work together to prevent needs going unmet. It also recommends undertaking long-term financial analysis to identify sustainable and intergenerationally fair policy solutions.

I look forward to engaging across the political spectrum to demonstrate how actuaries can work with interdisciplinary teams to help build solutions to the challenges outlined above, for the benefit of Scotland. Combining the expertise of actuaries with the innovative Scottish mindset and our deep financial services heritage could put Scotland on a fast-track in a world that faces the need to change. Do get in touch if this approach resonates with your vision for Scotland.

The actuarial profession specialises in risk management and the analysis and modelling of uncertain future events. Actuaries work in insurance, pensions, sustainability, healthcare and beyond. 

This article is sponsored by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries

https://actuaries.org.uk